Focus on European Economic Integration Q1/08

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• Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 (PDF, 2,2 MB) März 2008.

Studien und Analysen

• Editorial (PDF, 39 kB) Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00

• Developments in Selected Countries (PDF, 879 kB) Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00

• Euroization in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe – First Results from the New OeNB Euro Survey (PDF, 174 kB) Dvorsky, Scheiber, Stix. Dvorsky, Scheiber, Stix – Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 This article presents the main results of a new OeNB survey on foreign currency holdings, which was conducted for the first time in late 2007 in four Central and Eastern European (CEE) as well as seven Southeastern European (SEE) countries. The most important questions asked in the survey pertain to the currency composition and the amounts of foreign currency cash holdings and foreign currency deposits as well as to the motives for holding foreign currency cash and deposits. The authors conclude that the euro plays a dominant role in foreign currency-denominated assets (both cash and deposits) throughout the region. en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00

• Croatia: Coping with Rapid Financial Deepening (PDF, 328 kB) Gardó. Gardó – Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 The Croatian banking sector underwent sweeping structural changes in the late 1990s and has remained relatively stable and profitable since then. Driven by brisk credit growth, financial deepening has continued rapidly in recent years, with the level of bank intermediation now being among the highest in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. With regard to financial stability, relatively high credit and foreign exchange risks would appear to constitute the main challenges. However, the most recent slowdown in domestic credit growth and the sector’s relatively high shock-absorbing capacities, as indicated by quite high profitability and capitalization levels and the strategically oriented presence of foreign banks, help mitigate risk concerns. Yet, the increasing debt burden of both households and corporates requires careful monitoring. en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00

• Labor Markets in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European EU Member States: General Trends and Migration Effects (PDF, 233 kB) Schreiner. Schreiner – Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 This study gives an overview of labor market developments in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) EU Member States since their accession to the EU. By using data on net migration rates, the study also sheds light on the question whether migration in the aftermath of the EU enlargement has caused labor shortages and rising wage pressure in the region. The study finds virtually no evidence for this proposition. Net migration has been rather contained since 2004, with most of the countries actually showing higher immigration than emigration. en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00

• Factors Driving Import Demand in Selected Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries (PDF, 369 kB) Reininger. Reininger – Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 This study presents estimates of both country-specific and panel long-run import elasticities for EU Member States from Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe and for Croatia and Turkey. The results confirm (1) the existence of a strong export-import link in most of the countries, (2) the prominent role of fixed investment in determining imports in nearly all countries, and (3) with some exceptions, the relatively smaller role of private consumption for imports. Furthermore, we use import elasticities to test for economic interlinkages within the EU-27 and find that economic integration is advanced. en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00

• Determinants of Currency Crises: A Conflict of Generations? (PDF, 281 kB) Cuaresma, Slacík. Cuaresma, Slacík – Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 Crespo Cuaresma and Slacík (2007) show that macroeconomic fundamentals are rather fragile determinants of currency crises under model uncertainty. The objective of the present follow-up study is to search for empirical support for the first- and second-generation models of currency crises in emerging economies using a larger dataset that includes crisis episodes of the 1980s and 1990s, while explicitly taking into account model uncertainty in a Bayesian manner. In line with the propositions made in the theoretical literature, our results suggest that crisis episodes in the 1980s were driven predominantly by adverse developments of macroeconomic fundamentals, while the results for crises in the 1990s might well be interpreted as empirical support for the second-generation type of crises. In addition, our estimation results stand in contradiction to the popular bipolar view and suggest that de facto intermediate exchange rate arrangements considerably reduce the risk of a speculative currency attack. en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00

• Selected Abstracts (PDF, 59 kB) Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00

• SUERF Workshop and Special OeNB East Jour Fixe – Commodities, Energy and Finance (PDF, 47 kB) Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00

• Opportunities and Risks of Austrian Corporates in Central and Eastern Europe – An Empirical Analysis of the ATX Prime (PDF, 44 kB) Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00

• Olga Radzyner Award for Scientific Work on European Economic Integration (PDF, 41 kB) Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00

• Statistical Annex (PDF, 86 kB) Focus on European Economic Integration 1/08 en 31.03.2008, 00:00:00