Nontechnical summaries in English

How have profits been shaping domestic price pressures in Austria?

Friedrich Fritzer, Doris Prammer, Lukas Reiss, Martin Schneider

There is an ongoing public debate on the factors that have been driving domestic price pressures in Austria and in the euro area. A recurrent theme is whether the sharp increases in inflation may have been fueled by an excessive rise in corporate profits in some sectors. We address this question by decomposing sectoral value added deflators into their income components.

These deflators record the price development of domestic value added without imported intermediate inputs. Value added is composed of compensation of employees, net taxes on production (= other indirect taxes on production less other subsidies), depreciation and profits (net operating surpluses). By decomposing value added, we can infer the contribution to price developments for each of these components.

In 2022, the deflator for the overall economy (except for the real estate sector, the information and communication sector and the public sector, which we excluded due to data issues) rose by 6.4%, more than half of which (4.0 percentage points) was attributable to increased profits. In order to examine whether the contribution from profits was driven by an above- or below-average development of profits, we split the profit contribution into two components: a distribution-neutral profit contribution, assuming that all income components grow at the same rate, which means that the respective shares (wage and profit share) remain constant; and a nonneutral profit contribution, which is characterized by a below- or above-average rise in profits in relation to the other income components. In 2022, the nonneutral profit contribution accounts for more than a third (2.5 percentage points) of the deflator increase; thus, corporate profits were a relevant price driver.

From a sectoral perspective, three sectors exhibited pronounced above-average contributions from profit. These sectors were energy (including mining as well as water supply and sewerage services), construction, and agriculture (including forestry). At the same time, profit development in the manufacturing sector was below average. Thus, inflation driven by energy prices contributed to a reallocation within the business sector in 2022.

In the first quarter of 2023, the increase of the value-added deflator for the overall economy (excluding the above-mentioned sectors) accelerated to 10.7%, well beyond the figure for 2022 as a whole (6.4%). In addition to the afore-mentioned sectors (energy, including mining; water supply and wastewater services; and construction and agriculture, including forestry), financial and insurance services showed a strong profit-driven deflator increase by 23%.

In its latest forecast, the OeNB expected profits to come under pressure in the remainder of 2023 and in 2024 due to slow economic growth, sharply increasing unit labor costs and mounting replacement costs for capital driving depreciation and amortization; for 2024, the OeNB forecast even points to a dampening effect on inflation.

From a distribution-neutrality perspective, we find the contribution from corporate profits to the value-added deflator to be slightly above average in the period from 2020 to 2024.

Energy price shock poses additional challenge to Austria’s price competitiveness

Thomas Url, Klaus Vondra, Ursula Glauninger

How competitive are Austrian goods and service exports? The first step toward answering this question is to compare the value of the Austrian currency against a basket of other currencies in a way that reflects the relative importance of trading partners. This is what the so-called nominal effective exchange rate index does. For Austria, this index is being provided by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO). When this index goes up, Austrian exports become more expensive in other countries. When this index goes down, Austrian exports become less expensive. By adding information on the relative development of prices or costs, i.e. by comparing the prices or the costs of production in Austria with each trading partner, we arrive at the real effective exchange rate index. Austria’s real effective exchange rate index is, thus, an indicator of Austria’s international price or cost competitiveness. With this article, we publish the latest update of weights used to compute the nominal and real exchange rate index for Austria in four segments of the economy: (1) manufactured goods, (2) food and beverages, (3) raw materials and energy products, (4) services and (4a) tourism services. Our calculations relate to up to 55 trading partners, which account for more than 95% of all exports from and imports to Austria. The key consequence of updating the effective exchange rate is the reweighting of the individual currencies to reflect ongoing changes in the relative importance of the individual trading partners. In this article, we update the calculations published in 2021 by reflecting more recent data from 2016 to 2018 on trade flows in the weighting matrix.

The index recalculation and the extension of the calculations until mid-2023 show that in nominal terms the Austrian economy has lost some competitiveness over time, but in real terms (deflated by the (harmonized) index of consumer prices) the situation is almost unchanged compared to 1999. After the COVID-19 crisis, the Austrian economy exhibited a clear improvement in its competitiveness position, owing to a nominal devaluation and lower inflation rates compared to its trading partners. However, both driving factors have since turned around, resulting in a V-shaped development of the effective exchange rates and clear losses in both nominal and real terms since fall 2022. Current forecasts show that the inflation differential to the euro area will shrink while unit labor costs will be driven due to comparatively higher wage agreements in Austria. Hence, Austria will exhibit further competitiveness losses. The authors expect these losses to have a dampening effect on the Austrian economy of around 1 percent between 2022 and 2025.

Nontechnical summaries in German

Die Rolle der Gewinne für die Entwicklung des binnenwirtschaftlichen Preisdrucks in Österreich

Friedrich Fritzer, Doris Prammer, Lukas Reiss, Martin Schneider

Seit einiger Zeit gibt es sowohl in Österreich wie auch im Euroraum eine öffentliche Diskussion über die Ursachen des binnenwirtschaftlichen Preisdrucks. Konkret geht es um die Frage, ob es in manchen Sektoren im Zuge der hohen Teuerung zu einem übermäßigen Anstieg der Unternehmensprofite kam. Wir beantworten diese Frage mit einer Zerlegung von sektoralen Wertschöpfungsdeflatoren: Diese erfassen die Preisentwicklung der inländischen Wertschöpfung ohne importierte Vorleistungen. Die Wertschöpfung setzt sich zusammen aus Arbeitnehmerentgelten, Nettoproduktionsabgaben (= sonstige indirekte Produktionsabgaben abzüglich sonstiger Subventionen), Abschreibungen und Gewinnen (Nettobetriebsüberschüssen). Durch die Zerlegung kann man jeder dieser Komponenten ihren Beitrag zur Preisentwicklung zuordnen.

Für das Jahr 2022 stieg der Deflator für die Gesamtwirtschaft (die Immobilienwirtschaft, Information und Kommunikation sowie der öffentliche Sektor wurden aus Datengründen exkludiert) um 6,4 %. Mehr als die Hälfte davon (4,0 %-Punkte) wurde durch Gewinnanstiege erklärt. Um zu klären, ob dieser Beitrag durch eine über- oder unterdurchschnittliche Gewinnentwicklung getrieben wird, zerlegen wir den Gewinnbeitrag in zwei Komponenten: einen verteilungsneutralen Gewinnbeitrag, bei dem alle Einkommenskomponenten annahmegemäß gleich stark wachsen, und daher die jeweiligen Quoten (Lohn- bzw. Gewinnquote) konstant bleiben; und in einen nicht-neutralen Gewinnbeitrag, der durch ein im Verhältnis zu den anderen Einkommenskomponenten unter- oder überdurchschnittliches Wachstum der Gewinne bestimmt wird. Im Jahr 2022 erklärt der nicht-neutrale Gewinnbeitrag mehr als ein Drittel (2,5 %-Punkte) des Deflatoranstiegs; damit waren Unternehmensgewinne ein relevanter Preistreiber.

Auf sektoraler Ebene waren im Jahr 2022 in den drei Sektoren Energie (inkl. Bergbau sowie Wasser und Abwasser), Bau sowie Land- und Forstwirtschaft überdurchschnittliche Gewinnbeiträge zu verzeichnen. Gleichzeitig war die Gewinnentwicklung in den Unternehmen der Sachgütererzeugung unterdurchschnittlich. Die energiepreisgetriebene Inflation 2022 trug damit zu einer Umverteilung innerhalb des Unternehmenssektors bei.

Im ersten Quartal 2023 beschleunigte sich der Anstieg des Wertschöpfungsdeflators für die Gesamtwirtschaft (ohne die von uns exkludierten Sektoren) und lag mit +10,7 % deutlich über dem Gesamtjahr 2022 (+6,6 %). Neben den Bereichen Energie (inkl. Bergbau sowie Wasser und Abwasser) sowie Bau und Landwirtschaft war bei den Finanz- und Versicherungsdienstleistungen ein starker gewinngetriebener Deflatoranstieg in der Höhe von +23 % zu verzeichnen.

Für den Rest des Jahres 2023 und im Jahr 2024 werden die Gewinne laut der aktuellen OeNB-Prognose durch das niedrige Wirtschaftswachstum, stark steigende Lohnstückkosten und steigende Wiederbeschaffungskosten für die Abschreibung des Kapitalstocks unter Druck kommen; im Jahr 2024 werden sie sogar inflationsdämpfend wirken.

Im gesamten Zeitraum 2020 bis 2024 tragen Gewinne – im Sinne der Verteilungsneutralität – geringfügig überdurchschnittliche zum Wachstum des Wertschöpfungsdeflators bei.

Energiepreisschock bedroht preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Österreichs

Thomas Url, Klaus Vondra, Ursula Glauninger

Der nominelle effektive Wechselkursindex ist ein handelsgewichteter Durchschnitt der bilateralen Wechselkurse eines Landes mit den wichtigsten Handelspartnern. Ein höherer Indexwert signalisiert aus makroökonomischer Sicht eine Aufwertung gegenüber den Handelspartnern, ein sinkender eine Abwertung. Durch die Integration der relativen Preis- oder Kostenbewegungen in den nominellen Wechselkursindex erhält man einen real effektiven Wechselkursindex. Dieser ist ein Indikator für die internationale Preis- oder Kostenwettbewerbsfähigkeit eines Landes, je nachdem ob Preis- oder Lohnkostenindizes verglichen werden. Im vorliegenden Beitrag aktualisieren die Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) und das Österreichische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (WIFO) den nominellen und realen Wechselkursindex für Österreich für vier Branchen: (1) Industriewaren, (2) Nahrungsmittel und Getränke, (3) Rohstoffe und Energieprodukte, (4) Dienstleistungen und (4a) den Tourismus. In den Berechnungen werden bis zu 55 Handelspartner und damit mehr als 95 % des österreichischen Handels berücksichtigt. Die entscheidende Komponente in der Berechnung der Wechselkurse ist die Gewichtsmatrix, in der das Gewicht der einzelnen Handelspartner festgelegt wird. Im vorliegenden Artikel wurde diese Gewichtsmatrix mit nun zur Verfügung stehenden Daten für die Jahre 2016 bis 2018 neu berechnet und somit die Ergebnisse der letzten OeNB/WIFO- Berechnungen aus dem Jahr 2021 aktualisiert.

Die neuen Gewichte und die Verlängerung der Berechnungen bis Mitte 2023 zeigen, dass die österreichische Wirtschaft im Laufe der Zeit nominell etwas an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit verloren hat, während die reale Position (deflationiert mit dem HVPI/VPI) gegenüber 1999 nahezu unverändert blieb. Nach der COVID-19-Pandemie kam es zunächst zu einer nominellen Abwertung; im Vergleich zu den Handelspartnern niedrigere Inflationsraten in Österreich ließen den Effekt real noch stärker ausfallen. Allerdings haben sich beide treibenden Faktoren in der jüngeren Vergangenheit umgekehrt. Dies zeigt sich in einem V-förmigen Verlauf der effektiven Wechselkursindizes seit Herbst 2022, beide haben in diesem Zeitraum deutlich aufgewertet. Aktuelle Prognosen zeigen, dass sich der Inflationsunterschied zum Euroraum zwar verringern wird. Da die Lohnabschlüsse in Österreich aber vergleichsweise höher sein werden, sollten die Lohnstückkosten in Österreich stärker steigen als im Euroraum; mit entsprechend negativen Auswirkungen auf die preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Die Autoren rechnen damit, dass dieser Verlust zwischen 2022 und 2025 die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Österreich im Ausmaß von rund einem Prozent dämpfen wird.

Höhere Inflation trägt in der Regel zu einem höheren Wachstum der Staatseinnahmen bei, doch der Gesamteffekt der Teuerung auf den Staatshaushalt ist nicht eindeutig. Um festzustellen, wie sich der aktuelle Inflationsschock auf Österreichs Staatsfinanzen auswirkt, berücksichtigen wir in unserer Analyse insbesondere seine spezielle Ausprägung: der aktuelle Preisanstieg ist primär das Resultat des starken Anstiegs der internationalen Energiepreise und hat damit einen negativen Effekt auf das reale BIP. Unter diesen Voraussetzungen kommen wir zu dem Schluss, dass die Auswirkungen der hohen Inflation auf die öffentlichen Finanzen insgesamt eindeutig negativ sind, auch wenn sich kurzfristig ein kleiner positiver Effekt ergibt. Der kurzfristig positive Effekt auf den Staatshaushalt fällt allerdings viel kleiner aus als das Volumen der bereits verabschiedeten staatlichen Unterstützungen zur Abfederung der negativen Auswirkungen der Inflation auf Haushaltseinkommen und Unternehmen. Auch die Staatsschuldenquote geht kurzfristig zurück. Die laufende Verschlechterung des Budgetdefizits infolge der hohen Inflation lässt die Schuldenquote ab 2026 aber ansteigen. Darüber hinaus vergrößert die kürzlich in Österreich eingeführte Abschaffung der kalten Progression und die Indexierung der Familienleistungen die negativen Effekte des aktuellen Inflationsschocks auf den Budgetsaldo.

Austria’s economy set to recover after period of stagflation

Economic outlook for Austria from 2023 to 2025 (June 2023)

Friedrich Fritzer, Mathias Moser, Christian Ragacs, Lukas Reiss, Alfred Stiglbauer and Klaus Vondra ¹

Cutoff date: May 31, 2023

Table 1: OeNB June 2023 outlook for Austria – main results  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
	Annual change in % (real)
Gross domestic product (GDP)	4.9	0.5	1.7	1.6
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)	8.6	7.4	4.1	2.9
Unemployment rate (national definition)	6.3	6.4	6.2	6.1
	% of nominal GDP
Current account balance	0.7	1.3	1.9	2.3
Budget balance	–3.2	–2.6	–1.9	–1.9
Government debt	78.4	75.2	72.7	70.9
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.

In the course of 2023, global economic activity will be recovering slowly, but domestic inflationary pressures will remain high. We do not expect notable real GDP growth in Austria before the second half of 2023. For 2023 as a whole, Austria’s economy is set to grow by a weak 0.5%. Inflationary pressures will weaken in 2024, and domestic activity will become the main economic driver. Given the particularities of the wage-setting process in Austria, there is an inherent lag in wage compensation for inflation. This, in turn, leads to a sharp rise in real wages and thus in private consumption. Consequently, economic growth will accelerate to 1.7%. Economic growth in Austria (1.6%) will continue to be driven by strong consumption in 2025 as well. The Austrian labor market continues to be characterized by persistent labor shortages. Therefore, despite the weak economic situation, we do not expect any significant effects on the unemployment rate in 2023 (6.4%). In 2024 and 2025, we expect the unemployment rate to decline again. Inflation as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) peaked at 8.6% in 2022, driven by energy prices. Inflation will ease between 2023 and 2025 but will still remain well above its long-term average in 2025 (2.9%). Despite stagflation, Austria’s budget balance will decline to –2.6% of GDP in 2023, reflecting the phasing-out of temporary fiscal measures (and COVID-19-related measures in particular). The expected further improvement of the budget balance to –1.9% of GDP in 2024 can be attributed to the rebound in economic activity and the phasing-out of Austria’s energy relief packages. The debt-to-GDP ratio will fall from 78.4% in 2022 to 70.9% in 2025, mainly because of high growth in nominal GDP due to inflation.

1 Export growth loses considerable momentum and remains below average

Most of the above developments were expected in very similar terms in the OeNB’s economic outlook of December 2022. Growth in Austria’s export markets will be somewhat weaker in 2023 and 2025 than anticipated in our previous outlook, the euro has appreciated somewhat, and oil prices are expected to be somewhat lower and interest rates slightly higher over the forecast horizon. Overall, the changed external environment has only a small impact on the OeNB’s current outlook. Our assumption here is that Russia’s war against Ukraine will not escalate further and that the supply of natural gas to Austria will not be disrupted over the forecast horizon.

Table 2: Austria’s foreign trade and current account  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
	Annual change in %
Exports (real)	13.0	2.9	2.7	3.0
Imports (real)	7.8	2.7	2.2	2.6
	% of nominal GDP
Current account balance	0.7	1.3	1.9	2.3
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.

A number of leading export indicators point to a slowdown in the first half of 2023. Order backlogs are declining, given that new orders are dwindling and pent-up export orders have been reduced after supply chain problems have largely dissolved. However, the winter tourism season of 2022/2023 was successful, remaining only around 5% below the 2019 peak season. Exports of services currently play a greater role in the development of Austria’s overall exports than in recent years. Following exceptionally high post-pandemic growth of 13%, driven by catch-up effects, in 2022, Austria’s real export growth is projected to slow to 2.9% in 2023. Over the next two years, export growth will be supported by a rebound in export demand in the second half of 2023 and the recovery of inbound tourism from overseas. Overall, however, Austrian export growth rates will remain well below the long-term average observed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (2000 to 2019: 4.4%). Growth in exports and the significant recovery in domestic demand will lead to stronger import growth from the second half of 2023. Starting from the low level reached in 2021 due to the pandemic, Austria’s current account balance is set to improve over the entire forecast horizon, which attests to the high degree of competitiveness of the Austrian economy. However, the rather significant increase in relative unit labor costs poses a downside risk to our outlook, especially if wage moderation does not materialize in 2024 and 2025 as assumed.

Although net exports will make a slightly positive contribution to economic growth from 2021 until the end of the forecast horizon, Austria’s high dependence on energy imports has led to significant outflows of income to the rest of the world since 2021. Global energy prices had already been rising above pre-pandemic levels during the second half of 2021. 2022 saw a further surge as a result of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Consequently, the price of Austria’s energy imports went up significantly. Chart 1 shows the income losses in the foreign trade balance caused by the higher prices of energy goods from the beginning of 2021 until the end of the forecast horizon in 2025. The expected decline in energy prices will cause income outflows from Austria to slow down, but they will remain negative over the entire forecast horizon. In the fourth quarter of 2022, income outflows peaked at –EUR 3.4 billion against Q1 21. In cumulative terms, we expect an income outflow of just over EUR 30 billion over the entire forecast horizon (2021–2025). This corresponds to an average annual outflow of around 1.5% of nominal GDP.

2 Investment activity in Austria is very subdued

Having completed a pronounced cycle, housing investment plays a special role. Housing construction activity in Austria peaked in 2021 with 71,200 completed dwellings. Together with a slowdown in population growth, this has helped reduce the previous housing shortage and establish a relatively high degree of equilibrium in Austria’s housing market. Over the forecast horizon, higher interest rates on housing loans will impact the affordability of and, consequently, the demand for housing loans. Tighter lending standards for residential real estate financing, high land and construction costs as well as labor shortages will put an additional brake on housing investment. However, according to the current euro area bank lending survey, relevant and restrictive effects on lending much rather stem from demand-side than from supply-side developments (chart 2). Trends in building permits indicate a decline in housing construction activity in 2023 and 2024.

Table 3: Investment activity in Austria  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
	Annual change in %
Gross fixed capital formation (real)	0.4	0.4	0.6	1.4
Investment in plant and equipment	–1.2	–1.3	0.9	1.6
Residential construction investment	–3.2	–4.7	–3.3	0.8
Nonresidential construction investment and other investment	0.5	3.1	1.2	0.9
Investment in research and development	5.8	3.1	2.1	2.2
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.

Total gross fixed capital formation will practically stagnate again, at 0.4%, in 2023, while being fraught with a considerable downside risk. Despite a slight pickup in economic activity in the next two years, real gross fixed capital formation growth will remain well below its long-term pre-pandemic average in 2024 (0.6%) and 2025 (1.4%) (2000 to 2019: 1.7%). For both years, we expect weak growth in all subsectors of investment with the exception of residential investment, which will continue to decline in 2024. The investment-to-GDP ratio is forecast to decline from 26.1% in 2023 to 25.3% in 2025.

3 Robust labor market amid inflation-induced high wage gains

Labor supply growth will moderate slightly over the forecast horizon (chart 3). Austria’s labor force will stagnate in 2024 and decline slightly in 2025. The participation rate will increase marginally, mainly because the statutory retirement age for women will be raised. So far, the integration of Ukrainian refugees into the Austrian labor market has contributed only a small share (15,000 persons) to the growth of labor supply.

Despite the marked slowdown in economic activity, the unemployment rate (national definition) will rise only slightly in 2023, from 6.3% to 6.4%, while the unemployment rate according to Eurostat’s definition will increase from 4.8% to 5%. In 2024 and 2025, Austria’s unemployment rate will decline as the economy is set to recover (figures for 2025, national definition: 6.1%; Eurostat definition: 4.6%).

Table 4: Labor market and wage developments in Austria  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
	Annual change in %
Total employment (persons)	2.6	0.8	1.0	1.0
Total hours worked	3.0	–0.1	0.9	0.9
Compensation per employee
Gross1 compensation (nominal)	4.6	7.6	6.6	4.3
Collectively agreed wages and salaries2	3.1	7.6	6.5	4.2
Wage drift	1.5	0.0	0.1	0.1
Private consumption deflator	8.6	7.4	4.1	2.9
Gross1 compensation, real (HICP)	–3.7	0.2	2.4	1.3
Net3 compensation, real (HICP)	–3.1	0.9	3.3	1.4
Unemployment rate	% of labor supply
Eurostat definition	4.8	5.0	4.8	4.6
National definition	6.3	6.4	6.2	6.1
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.
1 Including employers’ social security contributions.
2 Overall economy.
3 After tax and social security contributions.

We expect collective wages to be raised by 7.6% in 2023, 6.5% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025 (see box 2 for details on the wage-setting process in Austria). Nominal gross compensation per employee will rise at a similar rate as negotiated wages and we do not expect any significant overpayment.

Gross real wages per employee (deflated by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) will hardly increase in 2023, following a pronounced decline in 2022. Net real wages will go up by 0.7% in 2023. We expect gross and net real wages to rise significantly in 2024 and 2025. The wage share of GDP will increase in 2023 and 2024, and hover around ½ percentage point above its 2019 pre-crisis level in 2025.

4 Wage increases lead to sharp rise in private consumption

Table 5: Household income and consumption in Austria  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
	Annual change in %
Disposable household income (real)	0.6	–0.9	3.3	2.5
Private consumption (real)	4.9	–0.2	2.3	1.6
	% of nominal disposable household income
Saving ratio	8.4	7.4	8.2	9.0
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.

In 2024, real wage growth is expected to be very strong, reflecting the expected decline in inflation and continued high wage settlements. Developments in real disposable household income are further supported by continued high employment growth and an increase in pension payments. For similar reasons, real disposable household income will continue to rise strongly in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than in 2024. Households will use only some of these income gains for consumption purposes and will, instead, return to saving more. The saving ratio will rise to 9% of nominal disposable household income by the end of the forecast horizon, almost reaching its historic pre-pandemic average (2000–2019: 9.4%).

5 HICP inflation will come to 7.4% in 2023 and is expected to fall to just below 3% by 2025

Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected to increase to 7.1% in 2023 (2022: 5.1%). The main reason for this is the sharp rise in wage costs due to lags in wage compensation for inflation. In 2024 and 2025, core inflation will fall to 5.1% and 2.8%, respectively, thus remaining above the long-term average over the entire forecast horizon. Core inflation has accelerated to date, which – together with the expected strong wage increases – caused our current projection exercise to produce higher results than projected in our latest exercise in March 2023 (table 6).

Table 6: Inflation in Austria  

		June 2023 outlook			Revision to March 2023 outlook
	2022	2023	2024	2025	2022	2023	2024
	Annual change in %				Percentage points
HICP	8.6	7.4	4.1	2.9	0.5	0.1	–0.2
Food	9.0	9.8	3.9	2.3	0.7	–1.4	–0.7
Unprocessed food	10.3	6.8	x	x	0.2	x	x
Processed food	8.7	10.5	x	x	0.8	x	x
Industrial goods excluding energy	5.8	6.7	x	x	1.3	x	x
Energy	39.8	5.6	–3.7	4.6	–3.8	–3.3	1.4
Services	4.6	7.2	x	x	0.8	x	x
HICP excluding energy	5.8	7.6	4.9	2.7	0.9	0.5	–0.4
HICP excluding energy und food	5.1	7.1	5.1	2.8	1.0	0.8	–0.3
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.

Stronger food price inflation in 2023 is partly attributable to rising price pressures stemming from wage increases. In addition, the decline in production costs is passed on to end user prices with a time lag. The decline in agricultural commodity prices and the marked fall in energy prices (fuels, gas and electricity) have so far been reflected only moderately in producer prices but should have an impact over the remainder of the forecast horizon. We expect food price inflation to slow down to 3.9% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. This means that, in 2025, inflation in this segment will only be slightly above the long-term average observed in the period from 1999 to 2019 (2.2%).

6 Budget deficit well below 3% of GDP as temporary measures are being phased out

We find that the expected further improvements in the budget balance over the forecast horizon will be attributable to the phasing-out of a series of temporary fiscal measures. In 2023, these will be, in particular, COVID-19-related measures, such as subsidies paid out by the Austrian COVID-19 financing agency (COFAG) and COVID-19 testing (chart 6, blue columns), while energy relief packages (green columns) will be discontinued during 2024 and 2025. The slowdown in economic activity and the lagged impact of the rise in inflation on government expenditure will worsen macroeconomic effects (chart 6, purple columns). The elimination of bracket creep will contribute to a deterioration of the budget balance in 2024 and 2025: In 2024, the inflation reference value for raising tax brackets and tax allowances will be close to 10%, but increases in pensions and, in particular, wages will be significantly lower. As a result, revenue from wage and income tax will grow at a clearly slower pace than the tax base (the orange columns in chart 6 indicate this net effect).

Thanks to lower budget deficits and very high nominal economic growth, Austria’s debt-to-GDP ratio will fall sharply over the forecast horizon, to just under 71% of GDP in 2025. However, the strong rise in the yield curve leads to a marked increase in interest payments (chart 6, brown columns).

From 2023 onward, the volume of discretionary measures is not only set to decline strongly (sum of green, blue and yellow columns in chart 6, blue marks in chart 7), but there will also be a sizeable shift in the structure of these measures. COVID-19-related measures consisted mostly of payments to companies (mainly funds paid out by COFAG) and expenditure on goods and services (especially on COVID-19 testing). When these measures began to expire and the energy crisis started to evolve, government measures shifted toward supporting real household incomes. These measures comprised measures increasing nominal household income (mainly one-off payments; orange columns in chart 7) and measures reducing energy prices (mainly reduction of energy taxes and electricity price cap; green columns). ¹² These measures offset part of the terms-of-trade losses for households discussed in section 1. Chart 8 shows that, despite the macroeconomic recovery, real disposable household income would have been around 5% (6%) below pre-crisis levels in 2022 (2023) in the absence of fiscal measures (purple columns ¹³ ). Given that these measures offset most of the losses incurred (around 90% in 2022 and around two-thirds in 2023), household incomes came in at only just below pre-crisis levels in both years. The strong real growth in wages and pensions expected for 2024 and 2025 will lead to a recovery of household incomes, but at the same time measures will be diminishing. This particularly concerns price measures such as the temporary reduction of energy taxes and the electricity price cap, while the CO2 tax, which has been in force since end-2022, will be increasing gradually.

7 Annex of tables

Table A1: Main results of the forecast  

	June 2023				Revisions since Dec. 2022
	2022	2023	2024	2025	2022	2023	2024	2025
Economic activity	Annual change in % (real)
Gross domestic product (GDP)	4.9	0.5	1.7	1.6	0.1	–0.1	–0.1	0.1
Private consumption	4.9	–0.2	2.3	1.6	0.3	–0.3	0.2	0.2
Government consumption	3.6	–0.3	0.0	0.7	2.5	0.2	–0.4	0.1
Gross fixed capital formation	0.4	0.4	0.6	1.4	2.6	1.8	–1.1	–0.6
Exports of goods and services	13.0	2.9	2.7	3.0	4.3	1.2	–0.6	–0.7
Imports of goods and services	7.8	2.7	2.2	2.6	5.6	2.2	–0.9	–1.0
	% of nominal GDP
Current account balance	0.7	1.3	1.9	2.3	0.2	0.4	0.3	–0.2
Import-adjusted contributions to real GDP growth1	Percentage points
Private consumption	1.6	–0.2	0.8	0.5	–0.4	–0.3	0.1	0.1
Government consumption	0.6	–0.1	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.0	–0.1	0.0
Gross fixed capital formation	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	–0.1	0.2	–0.1	0.0
Domestic demand (excluding changes in inventories)	2.3	–0.3	0.9	0.8	–0.1	–0.1	0.0	0.1
Exports	3.5	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.3	–0.1	–0.1	0.0
Changes in inventories (including statistical discrepancy)	–0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	–0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
Prices	Annual change in %
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)	8.6	7.4	4.1	2.9	0.0	0.9	0.5	0.0
Private consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator	7.4	8.7	4.1	2.9	–1.1	2.3	0.3	–0.2
GDP deflator	4.9	7.7	4.7	3.7	–1.8	1.9	0.7	0.1
Unit labor costs (overall economy)	2.2	7.9	5.9	3.6	0.4	1.1	0.6	0.6
Compensation per employee (nominal)	4.6	7.6	6.6	4.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.7
Compensation per hour worked (nominal)	4.5	8.4	6.6	4.3	0.8	0.3	0.6	0.9
Import prices	11.7	3.1	2.5	2.2	–0.8	–2.4	0.2	0.2
Export prices	7.9	3.8	3.6	3.0	–0.6	–0.1	0.3	–0.2
Terms of trade	–3.4	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.1	2.2	0.0	–0.4
Income and savings
Real disposable household income	0.6	–0.9	3.3	2.5	3.0	–0.7	–0.8	0.5
	% of nominal disposable household income
Saving ratio	8.4	7.4	8.2	9.0	2.8	2.2	1.3	1.6
Labor market	Annual change in %
Payroll employment	2.9	1.1	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.6	0.1	0.1
Hours worked (payroll employment)	3.0	0.3	1.1	1.0	–0.6	0.7	0.0	–0.1
	% of labor supply
Unemployment rate (Eurostat definition)	4.8	5.0	4.8	4.6	–0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
Unemployment rate (national definition)	6.3	6.4	6.2	6.1	0.0	–0.2	–0.2	–0.2
Public finances	% of nominal GDP
Budget balance	–3.2	–2.6	–1.9	–1.9	–0.3	–0.6	0.3	0.3
Government debt	78.4	75.2	72.7	70.9	1.2	0.8	0.2	–0.2
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.
1 The import-adjusted growth contributions were calculated by offsetting each final demand component with corresponding imports, which were obtained from input-output tables.

Tabelle A2: Underlying global economic conditions  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
Gross domestic product	Annual change in % (real)
World excluding the euro area	3.3	3.1	3.1	3.3
USA	2.1	1.0	0.6	1.6
China	3.0	6.0	4.7	4.5
India	6.8	5.6	6.5	6.8
Japan	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.0
Latin America	3.8	1.8	2.1	2.4
United Kingdom	4.1	0.2	0.7	1.1
CESEE EU member states1	–2.8	0.9	2.0	2.0
Switzerland	2.1	0.7	1.2	1.4
Euro area2	3.5	0.9	1.5	1.6
World trade (imports of goods and services)	Annual change in % (real)
World	6.0	1.5	3.4	3.3
World excluding the euro area	5.3	1.3	3.4	3.4
Growth of euro area export markets (real)	6.3	0.5	3.1	3.1
Growth of Austrian export markets (real	7.1	1.0	3.3	3.1
Prices
Oil price, USD/barrel (Brent)	103.7	78.0	72.6	70.4
Three-month interest rate, %	0.3	3.4	3.4	2.9
Long-term interest rate, %	1.7	3.1	3.2	3.3
USD/EUR exchange rate	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1
Nominal effective exchange rate of the euro (euro area index)	116.8	121.2	121.5	121.5
Source: Eurosystem.
1 Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania.
2 2022: Eurostat; 2023 to 2025: results of the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area of June 2023.

Table A3: Foreign trade  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
Exports	Annual change in %
Competitor prices in Austria’s export markets	16.2	0.0	2.8	2.4
Export deflator	7.9	3.8	3.6	3.0
Changes in price competitiveness1	8.3	–3.8	–0.8	–0.6
Import demand in Austria’s export markets (real)	7.1	1.0	3.3	3.1
Austrian exports of goods and services (real)	13.0	2.9	2.7	3.0
Austrian market share	5.9	1.8	–0.6	–0.1
Imports	Annual change in %
International competitor prices in the Austrian market	14.3	1.3	3.1	2.4
Import deflator	11.7	3.1	2.5	2.2
Austrian imports of goods and services (real)	7.8	2.7	2.2	2.6
Terms of trade	–3.4	0.7	1.0	0.8
	Percentage points of real GDP
Contribution of net exports to GDP growth	3.1	0.2	0.4	0.4
	% of nominal GDP
Export ratio	61.8	61.0	60.9	61.3
Import ratio	60.4	59.0	58.1	57.8
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.
1 Changes in price competitiveness are defined as the difference between changes in competitor prices in Austria’s export markets and changes in the export deflator.

Table A4: Current account  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
	% of nominal GDP
Balance of trade	1.4	2.1	2.7	3.1
Balance of goods	–0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7
Balance of services	1.6	1.8	2.2	2.5
Balance of primary income1	–0.2	–0.2	–0.2	–0.2
Balance of secondary income2	–0.5	–0.6	–0.6	–0.6
Current account balance	0.7	1.3	1.9	2.3
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.
1 Balance of income (e.g. labor compensation, investment income).
2 Balance of current transfers.

Table A5: Household income and private consumption  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
	Annual change in %
Payroll employment	2.9	1.1	1.1	1.0
Wages and salaries per employee	4.6	7.6	6.6	4.3
Compensation of employees	7.6	8.7	7.8	5.4
Property income	–4.1	3.7	4.4	4.8
Self-employment income and operating surpluses (net)	12.0	3.2	3.8	3.4
	Contribution to household disposable income growth in percentage points
Compensation of employees	6.7	7.6	6.9	4.8
Property income	–0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3
Self-employment income and operating surpluses (net)	1.9	0.5	0.6	0.5
Net transfers less direct taxes1	–0.1	–0.9	–0.2	–0.2
	Annual change in %
Disposable household income (nominal)	8.0	7.6	7.5	5.4
Consumption deflator	7.4	8.7	4.1	2.9
Disposable household income (real)	0.6	–0.9	3.3	2.5
Private consumption (real)	4.9	–0.2	2.3	1.6
	% of nominal disposable household income growth
Saving ratio	8.4	7.4	8.2	9.0
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.
1 Negative values indicate an increase in (negative) net transfers less direct taxes; positive values indicate a decrease.

Table A6: Investment  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
	Annual change in %
Total gross fixed capital formation (real)	0.4	0.4	0.6	1.4
of which:
investment in plant and equipment	–1.2	–1.3	0.9	1.6
residential construction investment	–3.2	–4.7	–3.3	0.8
nonresidential construction investment and other investment	0.5	3.1	1.2	0.9
investment in research and development	5.8	3.1	2.1	2.2
public sector investment	–3.4	6.1	2.2	1.6
private investment	1.0	–0.4	0.4	1.4
Contribution to real gross fixed capital formation growth	Percentage points
Investment in plant and equipment	–0.4	–0.4	0.3	0.5
Residential construction investment	–0.6	–0.8	–0.6	0.1
Nonresidential construction investment and other investment	0.1	0.8	0.3	0.2
Investment in research and development	1.3	0.7	0.5	0.5
	Percentage points
Total gross fixed capital formation	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3
Changes in inventories	–0.8	0.0	–0.1	0.0
	% of nominal GDP
Investment ratio	26.1	25.9	25.4	25.3
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.

Table A7: Labor market  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
Employment	Annual change in %
Total employment (persons)	2.6	0.8	1.0	1.0
Payroll employmen (persons)	2.9	1.1	1.1	1.0
of which: public sector employees	1.0	0.4	0.4	0.4
Self-employment (persons)	0.5	–1.1	0.2	0.4
Total hours worked	3.0	–0.1	0.9	0.9
Payroll employment (hours)	3.0	0.3	1.1	1.0
Self-employment (hours)	3.0	–1.8	0.1	0.2
Labor supply	1.2	1.1	0.8	0.7
Registered unemployment	–21.5	7.2	–3.9	–3.9
Unemployment rate	% of labor supply
Eurostat definition	4.8	5.0	4.8	4.6
National definition	6.3	6.4	6.2	6.1
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.

Table A8: Compensation of employees  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
Gross wages and salaries1	Annual change in %
In nominal terms	7.6	8.7	7.8	5.4
Consumption deflator	7.4	8.7	4.1	2.9
In real terms	0.3	0.0	3.7	2.5
Collectively agreed wages and salaries1	3.1	7.6	6.5	4.2
Wage drift	1.5	0.0	0.1	0.1
Compensation per employee
Gross2 compensation (nominal)	4.6	7.6	6.6	4.3
Gross compensation (real, private consumption expenditure deflator)	–2.5	–1.1	2.4	1.4
Net3 compensation (real, private consumption expenditure deflator)	–2.0	–0.3	3.3	1.5
Compensation per hour worked
Gross compensation (nominal)	4.5	8.4	6.6	4.3
Gross compensation (real, private consumption expenditure deflator)	–2.7	–0.2	2.4	1.4
	% of nominal GDP
Wage share	48.4	48.6	49.2	49.2
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.
1 Overall economy.
2 Including employers’ social security contributions.
3 After tax and social security contributions.

Table A9: Prices  

	2022	2023	2024	2025
HICP and subcomponents	Annual change in %
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)	8.6	7.4	4.1	2.9
Food	9.0	9.8	3.9	2.3
Unprocessed food	10.2	5.4	x	x
Processed food	8.5	8.6	x	x
Industrial goods excluding energy	5.6	5.3	x	x
Energy	39.8	5.6	–3.7	4.6
Electricity	11.1	1.5	19.1	8.1
Natural gas	80.9	28.9	–2.8	–17.2
Liquid fuels	47.8	–11.8	–5.9	–2.8
Services	4.6	5.9	x	x
HICP excluding energy	5.8	7.6	4.9	2.7
HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food	5.1	7.1	5.1	2.8
Deflators (national accounts)
Private consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator	7.4	8.7	4.1	2.9
Investment deflator	8.3	6.8	4.0	3.5
Import deflator	11.7	3.1	2.5	2.2
Export deflator	7.9	3.8	3.6	3.0
Terms of trade	–3.4	0.7	1.0	0.8
GDP deflator at factor costs	4.8	6.4	4.7	3.7
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook.

Table A10: Breakdown of revisions to the outlook  

	2023	2024	2025	2023	2024	2025
	Annual change in %
June 2023 outlook	0.5	1.7	1.6	7.4	4.1	2.9
December 2022 outlook	0.6	1.7	1.6	6.5	3.6	2.9
Difference	–0.1	–0.1	0.1	0.9	0.5	0.0
Caused by:	Percentage points
External assumptions	0.1	0.0	–0.1	–0.6	0.2	0.0
New data1	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
of which:
revisions to historical data up to Q3 22	–0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
projection errors for Q4 22 and Q1 23	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0
Other reasons2	–0.4	–0.1	0.2	0.9	0.3	0.0
Source: 2022: OeNB June 2023 and December 2023 outlook. The sum of growth contributions subject to individual revisions may differ from the overall revision due to differences in rounding.
1 “New data” refer to data on GDP and/or inflation that have become available since the publication of the preceding OeNB outlook.
2 Different assumptions about trends in domestic variables such as wages, government consumption, effects of tax measures, other changes in assessments and model changes.

Table A11: Comparison of current economic forecasts for Austria  

	OeNB			WIFO		IHS		OECD		IMF		European Commission
	June 2023			March 2023		March 2023		June 2023		April 2023		May 2023
	2023	2024	2025	2023	2024	2023	2025	2023	2024	2023	2024	2023	2024
Main results	Annual change in %
GDP (real)	0.5	1.7	1.6	0.3	1.8	0.5	1.4	0.2	1.6	0.4	1.1	0.4	1.6
Private consumption (real)	–0.2	2.3	1.6	1.3	2.0	0.6	1.8	–0.2	2.3	x	x	1.4	2.1
Government consumption (real)	–0.3	0.0	0.7	0.2	0.6	–1.3	–0.8	–0.2	0.6	x	x	–0.4	0.3
Gross fixed capital formation (real)	0.4	0.6	1.4	0.0	1.0	–0.7	1.0	0.3	1.1	x	x	0.0	1.1
Exports (real)	2.9	2.7	3.0	2.0	3.3	1.7	3.2	3.2	2.7	5.9	2.1	1.5	2.5
Imports (real)	2.7	2.2	2.6	2.1	3.2	1.1	3.2	2.8	2.7	4.6	1.7	2.0	2.3
Labor productivity1	–0.3	0.7	0.7	–0.1	0.8	–0.5	0.5	1.0	1.0	x	x	–0.2	0.7
GDP deflator	7.7	4.7	3.7	7.1	4.2	6.4	3.7	7.5	3.5	7.8	2.6	7.2	4.2
CPI	x	x	x	7.1	3.8	7.5	3.5	x	x	x	x	x	x
HICP	7.4	4.1	2.9	7.3	3.5	7.5	3.5	8.0	3.9	8.2	3.0	7.1	3.8
Unit labor costs	7.9	5.9	3.6	8.7	7.2	8.1	5.7	1.3	1.3	x	x	8.5	5.9
Payroll employment2	0.8	1.0	1.0	0.8	1.3	1.0	0.9	1.4	0.6	–0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9
	% of labor supply
Unemployment rate3 (Eurostat definition)	5.0	4.8	4.6	4.7	4.5	4.9	4.8	5.0	5.1	5.3	5.6	4.9	5.0
	% of nominal GDP
Current account balance	1.3	1.9	2.3	1.6	2.1	x	x	1.4	1.3	1.2	0.6	0.8	1.2
Budget balance (Maastricht definition)	–2.6	–1.9	–1.9	–1.8	–0.4	–2.9	–2.3	–3.2	–1.6	–2.7	–1.5	–2.4	–1.3
Technical assumptions
Oil price, USD/barrel (Brent)	78.0	72.6	70.4	84.0	80.0	82.0	77.0	77.4	75.0	73.1	68.9	85.0	78.0
Short-term interest rate, %	3.4	3.4	2.9	3.9	4.7	3.6	3.9	3.2	3.4	2.8	3.0	3.3	3.3
USD/EUR exchange rate	1.08	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.20	1.08	1.08	1.04	1.04	1.06	1.05	1.09	1.10
	Annual change in %
Euro area GDP (real)	0.9	1.5	1.6	0.7	1.6	0.6	1.5	0.9	1.5	0.8	1.4	1.1	1.6
US GDP (real)	1.0	0.6	1.6	1.0	1.5	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.0	1.6	1.1	1.4	1.0
World GDP (real)	2.9	2.9	3.1	x	x	2.6	2.9	2.7	2.9	2.8	3.0	2.8	3.1
World trade4	1.5	3.4	3.3	x	x	1.3	3.7	1.6	3.8	2.4	3.5	1.6	3.1
Source: OeNB, WIFO, IHS, OECD, IMF, European Commission. Note: x = no data available.
1 OeNB, WIFO: GDP per hour worked. IHS, OECD, European Commission: GDP per employee.
2 WIFO, IHS: based on active payroll.
3 WIFO: percentage of persons in payroll employment (national definition).
4 IHS: goods according to CPB; European Commission: world imports.

Table A12: Quarterly outlook results  

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2022				2023
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2
Prices, wages and costs	Annual change in %
HICP	8.6	7.4	4.1	2.9	5.5	7.9	9.9	11.1	10.6	8.8
HICP excluding energy and food	5.8	7.6	4.9	2.7	3.5	5.2	6.5	8.1	9.1	8.5
Private consumption expenditure deflator	7.4	8.7	4.1	2.9	4.3	6.6	8.7	9.7	11.1	9.5
Gross fixed capital formation deflator	8.3	6.8	4.0	3.5	7.0	8.3	8.9	8.9	8.6	6.9
GDP deflator	4.9	7.7	4.7	3.7	3.4	4.4	5.2	6.5	7.3	8.3
Unit labor costs	2.2	7.9	5.9	3.6	0.8	1.6	3.6	3.0	4.5	8.9
Nominal wages per employee	4.6	7.6	6.6	4.3	4.9	5.0	4.2	4.4	4.9	7.9
Productivity	2.3	–0.3	0.7	0.7	4.0	3.3	0.6	1.4	0.4	–0.8
Real wages per employee	–2.5	–1.1	2.4	1.4	0.5	–1.6	–4.1	–4.9	–5.6	–1.4
Import deflator	11.7	3.1	2.5	2.2	11.4	13.1	12.4	9.9	5.3	2.3
Export deflator	7.9	3.8	3.6	3.0	7.6	8.7	8.3	6.9	4.4	3.0
Terms of trade	–3.4	0.7	1.0	0.8	–3.4	–3.9	–3.6	–2.7	–0.9	0.6
Economic activity	Annual and/or quarterly changes in % (real)
GDP	4.9	0.5	1.7	1.6	1.3	1.7	0.0	–0.1	0.1	–0.2
Private consumption	4.9	–0.2	2.3	1.6	2.9	–0.5	–0.6	–1.5	0.4	0.7
Government consumption	3.6	–0.3	0.0	0.7	0.3	0.8	0.2	3.0	–2.7	0.0
Gross fixed capital formation	0.4	0.4	0.6	1.4	2.2	–1.7	–0.4	3.8	–1.5	–0.4
Exports	13.0	2.9	2.7	3.0	1.9	4.3	1.5	0.3	0.9	–0.5
Imports	7.8	2.7	2.2	2.6	2.4	0.2	0.9	–0.1	1.9	–0.2
	Contribution to real GDP growth in percentage points
Domestic demand	2.3	–0.3	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.4	–0.4	0.3	–0.6	0.1
Net exports	3.5	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.0	1.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	–0.3
Changes in inventories	–0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.4	–0.6	0.2	–0.5	0.7	0.0
Labor market	% of labor supply
Unemployment rate (Eurostat definition)	4.8	5.0	4.8	4.6	4.6	4.4	5.0	5.0	4.8	5.0
	Annual and/or quarterly changes in %
Total employment	2.6	0.8	1.0	1.0	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.5	–0.2
of which: private sector	2.9	0.9	1.1	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.4	0.6	–0.3
Payroll employment	2.9	1.1	1.1	1.0	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.5	0.6	–0.1
Additional variables	Annual and/or quarterly changes in % (real)
Disposable household income	0.6	–0.9	3.3	2.5	–0.9	–2.0	10.2	–10.3	–0.1	4.3
	% of real GDP
Output gap	0.4	–0.5	–0.3	0.0	–0.3	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.0	–0.6
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook. Note: Quarterly values based on seasonally and working day-adjusted data.

Table A12 continued: Quarterly outlook results  

	2023		2024				2025
	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Prices, wages and costs	Annual change in %
HICP	6.0	4.4	3.9	3.8	4.5	4.2	3.6	3.1	2.6	2.3
HICP excluding energy and food	7.1	5.8	5.1	5.0	5.0	4.4	3.4	2.7	2.4	2.3
Private consumption expenditure deflator	7.7	6.6	5.0	4.0	3.7	3.9	3.5	3.2	2.6	2.3
Gross fixed capital formation deflator	6.1	5.6	4.5	4.1	3.8	3.6	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.4
GDP deflator	8.0	7.3	5.7	4.4	4.4	4.5	4.2	3.9	3.5	3.1
Unit labor costs	9.3	9.0	8.6	5.3	5.0	4.8	4.4	3.8	3.2	2.8
Nominal wages per employee	8.5	8.8	9.3	6.0	5.8	5.6	4.9	4.5	3.9	3.7
Productivity	–0.7	–0.2	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.9
Real wages per employee	0.8	2.1	4.1	2.0	2.0	1.6	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.4
Import deflator	2.1	2.6	2.9	2.6	2.3	2.3	2.5	2.4	2.1	1.7
Export deflator	3.2	4.8	4.1	3.7	3.3	3.2	3.1	3.1	3.0	2.8
Terms of trade	1.1	2.1	1.2	1.0	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.6	0.8	1.0
Economic activity	Annual and/or quarterly changes in % (real)
GDP	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3
Private consumption	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3
Government consumption	–0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1
Gross fixed capital formation	–0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3
Exports	0.3	0.8	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7
Imports	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6
	Contribution to real GDP growth in percentage points
Domestic demand	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1
Net exports	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
Changes in inventories	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Labor market	% of labor supply
Unemployment rate (Eurostat definition)	5.1	5.0	5.0	4.8	4.7	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.5	4.6
	Annual and/or quarterly changes in %
Total employment	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1
of which: private sector	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1
Payroll employment	–0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
Additional variables	Annual and/or quarterly changes in % (real)
Disposable household income	–0.6	0.3	0.8	1.1	0.9	0.9	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.2
	% of real GDP
Output gap	–0.8	–0.8	–0.5	–0.3	–0.2	–0.1	–0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Source: 2022: Statistics Austria; 2023 to 2025: OeNB June 2023 outlook. Note: Quarterly values based on seasonally and working day-adjusted data.

How have profits been shaping domestic price pressures in Austria?

Friedrich Fritzer, Doris Prammer, Lukas Reiss, Martin Schneider ¹⁴

Refereed by: Josef Baumgartner, WIFO

There is an ongoing debate as to whether profits have been driving inflation in Austria and in the euro area. We address this question by decomposing the value added deflator for the Austrian economy into its income components: compensation of employees, net operating surplus, consumption of fixed capital and taxes less subsidies on production. Furthermore, we conduct this decomposition not only for the economy as a whole but also for major sectors of the economy. In 2022, the value added deflator for the Austrian economy grew at a rate of 6.4%. Profits contributed 4.0 percentage points thereof, thus accounting for more than half of value added inflation. To assess whether profits have been driving up inflation disproportionately, we calculate the contribution of all income components on a balanced growth path, which leaves the income components’ impact on value added constant, and define any growth above this threshold as nonneutral or disproportionate. We thus see that in 2022 nonneutral profits explained more than one-third (2.5 percentage points) of domestic inflation. With respect to sectoral developments, energy (including water supply and waste management), construction and agriculture (including forestry) as well as financial and insurance activities contributed most to the growth of the value added deflator. In 2023 and 2024, the inflation contribution of profits will decline owing to the expected strong growth of unit labor costs and the increasing contribution of depreciation. Over the period from 2020 to 2024, the average nonneutral profit contribution to the growth of the value added deflator will be minor judging from the OeNB’s most recent macroeconomic projections.

JEL classification: E31, D33

Keywords: domestic price pressure, profit share

This publication addresses this question by decomposing the value added deflator for the economy as a whole and for individual sectors. Value added deflators measure the price of value added through the domestic production of goods and services. This perspective significantly differs from tracking the prices payable by consumers for goods and services (including imports), which we do with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Moreover, value added goes beyond the production of consumer goods and services by covering also the production of the other demand components (exports, gross capital formation and public consumption). As is evident from chart 1, the value added deflator for the economy as a whole and HICP inflation moved broadly in sync between 2000 and 2021. In 2022, the rising cost of energy imports pushed up the HICP by 8.6%, well beyond the 4.7% increase of the value added deflator for the overall economy. ¹⁶ Note that, due to data issues, the analysis below does not cover the real estate sector, the information and communication sector and the public sector. When we exclude these sectors, the value added deflator for the Austrian economy rose by 6.4% in 2022.

Method for decomposing the value added deflator

(1)

Calculation of necessary data for 2022

Net taxes on production

Depreciation and amortization

Net operating surplus

Compensation of employees and net operating surplus adjusted for crisis-related subsidies

Since crisis-related subsidies do not impact enterprises’ price-setting behavior, operating profit is more relevant for our exercise as we seek to establish to what extent labor and capital have contributed to the price increases. Both short-time work subsidies (paid to enterprises, but essentially benefiting employees) as well as other crisis-related subsidies aim to prevent an increase in unemployment and/or corporate insolvencies, rather than seeking to reduce consumer prices.

Short-time work subsidies directly benefited labor. In many other countries, these subsidies were recorded in the national accounts as direct transfers to households, while in Austria they were recorded under subsidies and compensation of employees alike. Hence we deduct the subsidies from compensation of employees to increase international comparability.

Regarding the lavish support provided through the other COVID-19 subsidies (net turnover compensation, fixed cost grants, compensation for losses), we can assume that these subsidies primarily lowered losses or bolstered profits rather than leading to price cuts. Therefore, we deduct these subsidies directly from the net operating surplus, and the initial retroactive energy bill subsidy for 2022 as well.

Thus, we adjust both the net operating surplus and the compensation of employees for the respective crisis-related subsidies:

Chart 2 (right-hand panel) also shows the unit costs relevant for the decomposition (= nominal value added component divided by real value added).

Results of decomposition for the overall economy

In 2020, both compensation of employees and net operating surplus were on the decline. However, since value added fell more sharply, unit labor costs and unit profits increased. Only depreciation and amortization (calculated on the basis of capital stock and investment) rose this year, accounting for most of the increase in the deflator. In 2021, compensation of employees and net operating surplus contributed roughly equally to the increase in the deflator. In 2022, the net operating surplus accounted for more than half of the increase in the deflator at 4.0 percentage points.

Forecast for 2023 and 2024 suggests negative excess profit contribution

According to quarterly national accounts data, the increase of the value added deflator for the overall economy (excluding the above-mentioned sectors) accelerated to 10.7% in the first quarter of 2023, well above the figure for 2022 as a whole (+6.6%). In addition to the sectors energy (including water supply and waste management), construction and agriculture (including forestry), financial and insurance services showed a strong profit-driven deflator increase, namely by 23%.

For the remainder of 2023 and in 2024, profits will come under pressure from several angles. First, economic growth will be moderate in both years. According to the OeNB’s latest projections from June 2023, real economic growth will be just 0.5% in 2023 and then accelerate to 1.7% in 2024. Second, compensation of employees will rise sharply in both years, following the inherent lags and spikes in wage adjustments to inflation. According to the OeNB wage tracker, negotiated wage growth will accelerate significantly already in the first quarter of 2023 (+6.6%) owing to the wage settlements negotiated in 2022 (+3.1%), ultimately coming to 7.6% in 2023 as a whole. According to the wage tracker, there are signs of continued strong negotiated wage growth in the first three quarters of 2024. In addition, given the current labor shortage, many enterprises can be expected to maintain employment despite the weak business situation expected in 2023, further pushing up unit labor costs. According to the OeNB’s June 2023 projections, unit labor costs will be marked by strong growth in 2023 (+7.9%) and 2024 (+5.9%). Third, due to high inflation, replacement costs of capital driving depreciation and amortization will, once again, rise sharply in 2023 (+6.8%). At +4.9%, growth in depreciation and amortization will be weaker again in 2024. This suggests that the net operating surplus will contribute significantly less to inflation in 2023 and 2024 than it did in 2022. The level of short-time work subsidies will be close to zero in 2023 and 2024; due to continued energy bill subsidies, the other crisis-related subsidies will increase slightly in 2023 compared to 2022, but they will also approach zero in 2024 (based on a “no policy change” assumption).

Under these assumptions, net operating surplus excluding crisis-related subsidies will only rise by 11% and 3% in 2023 and 2024, respectively (after +25% in 2022). Thus, net operating surplus will contribute 2.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, to the changes in the value added deflator, which has been forecast to grow by 8.4% in 2023 and by 3.8% in 2024. In comparison with a hypothetical scenario where all value added components grow at the same rate, the above-average profit contribution is negative in 2024. Over the entire observation period between 2020 and 2024, the above-average profit contribution approaches zero, with 0.2 percentage points per annum. Similarly, the “excess contribution” from the compensation of employees will increase in 2023 and 2024, meaning that it is almost neutral throughout the 2020–2024 period.

In contrast to corporate profits, the concept of net operating surplus includes net interest payments. According to recent national accounts data, interest payments made by nonfinancial corporations were relatively stable from 2019 to 2022. ²⁶ However, they will increase substantially in 2023 and 2024 due to changes in the interest rate environment. Therefore, corporate profits of the nonfinancial sector will – ceteris paribus – increase less than net operating surplus in those two years.

Overview of sectoral results

Chart 5 (left-hand panel) shows inflation according to the value added deflator in 2022 in connection with the overall contribution of profits to inflation and above-average profit contributions for selected sectors. Mining, energy, water supply and waste management (NACE B, D and E) showed the strongest deflator rise (+35%), most of which is attributable to the contribution from profits. In the quarterly national accounts data, the data on the energy sector (NACE D) come as an aggregate including the data on mining (NACE B) and water supply and waste management (NACE E). The energy sector’s (NACE D) share of value added of this aggregate was 54% in 2021. Assuming that the mining and water/waste management sectors only experienced average deflator increases, the increases in the energy sector are likely to have been almost twice as high.

In the construction sector (NACE F), the value added deflator has risen sharply for some time now as a result of surging property prices. The annual increases between 2011 and 2020 (+4.1%) were almost three times as high as the increase for the overall economy in that period (+1.5%). The construction-related increases were largely driven by unit labor costs. In contrast, the deflator increases calculated for the past three years (2020: +6.0%, 2021: +6.1%, 2022: +13.3%) are essentially attributable to the development of profits. The above-average profit contribution in 2022 accounts for just under two-thirds (7.4 percentage points of 11.7%) of the respective deflator increase.

The agriculture and forestry sector (NACE A) benefited from the strong increases in global food and wood prices, which significantly boosted profits. An above-average profit contribution (5.5 percentage points) accounted for just under half of the 13.6% increase in the value added deflator in 2022. The deflator increase in the transporting and storage sector (NACE H), while significantly weaker than the three afore-mentioned sectoral increases (+4.2%), was almost entirely driven by an above-average profit contribution. The manufacturing sector (NACE C) recorded a major decline in profits (–18%) in 2022, having been unable to pass on cost increases in full given strong international competition. As a result, the profit contribution to inflation from manufacturing was clearly negative (–4.2 percentage points) and entirely attributable to the development of profits.

Chart 5 moreover shows the decomposition results for 2022 compared with pre-crisis data for 2019 (middle panel). For the energy sector, the cumulative results for the period from 2019 to 2022 are rather similar to the results for 2022. In the construction and agriculture/forestry sectors, the cumulative three-year increase of the deflator up to 2022 was around twice as high as the year-on-year increase in 2022.

Finally, chart 5 (right-hand panel) shows the contributions of the sectoral above-average profit contributions to the increase in the deflator for the overall economy. In order to calculate the above-average profit contributions, we weighted the respective sectoral contributions with the sectoral shares of value added. This shows that, in 2022, the above-average profit contribution was driven entirely by the energy and construction sectors, with manufacturing absorbing a significant share of the deflator increases (i.e. manufacturers did not pass on price increases in full, but reduced profit margins).

For the detailed results for all sectors, see table A1 and charts A1 to A11 in annex 3. The quarterly results for the sectors are shown in chart A13 in annex 3.

Comparison of Austria with the euro area

The value added deflators for Austria and the euro area developed similarly. The contribution from compensation of employees is higher in Austria even after adjustment for short-time work subsidies, but only in 2021. ²⁷ The combined contribution of gross operating surplus (= net operating surplus and depreciation and amortization) and other net taxes on production is, thus, quite similar – also except for 2021. Other crisis-related subsidies (i.e. compensation for sales lost due to the pandemic and lockdowns and for eligible fixed and energy costs) should be examined together with the gross operating surplus, as they are the main driver behind the remaining volatility of other net taxes on production (excluding short-time work).

Conclusions

However, in its latest forecast, the OeNB expected profits to come under pressure in the remainder of 2023 and in 2024 due to slow economic growth, sharply increasing unit labor costs and mounting replacement costs for capital driving depreciation and amortization; for 2024, the OeNB forecast even points to a dampening effect on inflation.

Furthermore, the value added deflators for the Austrian economy as a whole and the euro area economy as a whole developed similarly.

References

Arce, O., E. Hahn and G. Koester. 2023. How tit-for-tat inflation can make everyone poorer (europa.eu). ECB blog, March 30.

Annex 1

Decomposing the value added deflator

Annex 2

Calculating depreciation and amortization

Annex 3

Results of the sectoral decomposition

Table A1: Overview of sectoral results  

Contribution of profits to growth in value added deflator by sector
	Share of value	2022					2020 to 2022
	added 2021	Deflator growth	Profit contribution		Above-average contribution		Deflator growth	Profit contribution	Above-average contribution
			Contribution, sector	Contribution, economy1	Contribution, sector	Contribution, economy1			Contribution, sector	Contribution, economy1
Overall economy (without J, L, O-Q)	100.0	6.4	4.0	4.0	2.5	2.5	3.8	1.3	0.4	0.4
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (NACE A)	2.0	13.6	10.3	0.2	5.5	0.1	9.5	7.7	4.7	0.1
Manufacturing industry (NACE C)	27.4	0.5	–4.2	–1.2	–4.3	–1.2	–0.2	–1.7	–1.6	–0.5
Mining, energy, water and waste (NACE B, D-E)	4.6	34.6	32.4	1.5	25.1	1.2	12.2	12.1	9.5	0.4
Construction (NACE F)	10.7	13.3	11.7	1.3	7.4	0.8	8.4	5.9	3.3	0.3
Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles (NACE G)	17.8	9.7	2.6	0.5	–0.3	–0.1	6.0	2.3	0.7	0.1
Transportation and storage, (NACE H)	7.4	4.2	4.7	0.3	4.2	0.3	2.3	–0.6	–0.9	–0.1
Accommodation and food services, (NACE I)	5.1	–0.0	2.0	0.1	2.0	0.1	6.8	2.9	–0.1	–0.0
Other private sector services (NACE K, K, M-N, R, T-U)	24.9	4.0	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	2.5	–0.8	–1.2	–0.3
Financial and insurance services, (NACE K)	6.4	6.0	1.7	0.1	1.1	0.1	3.9	0.4	0.0	0.0
Other financial services (NACE M-N)	14.9	2.7	1.2	0.2	0.8	0.1	1.7	–0.7	–0.9	–0.1
Arts entertainment, recreation, other services, (NACE R, T-U)	3.6	5.7	0.8	0.0	–0.4	–0.0	3.7	–1.4	–2.3	–0.1
Source: Statistics Austria, authors’ calculations.
1 Growth contribution of a sector’s above-average profits to growth in the value-added deflator for the economy as a whole.

Energy price shock poses additional challenge to Austria’s price competitiveness

Thomas Url, Klaus Vondra, Ursula Glauninger ³⁰ Refereed by: Benjamin Bitschi (WIFO), Julia Grübler (UNCTAD)

This article reports on the latest update of Austria’s effective exchange rate indices, which aggregate bilateral exchange rates and relative prices or costs into indicators of Austria’s short- to medium-term international competitive position. The weighting scheme on which the indicators are based uses bilateral trade data for Austria’s 55 most important trading partners. With the latest update, the three-year averaging period was moved forward to 2016-2018. The main results are as follows: Based on the recalculated country weights, we confirm the preliminary finding of a medium-term worsening of Austria’s competitive position, although alternative price indices would appear to provide conflicting signals. In particular, measures based on producer prices and unit labor costs indicate competitiveness gains, while the HICP/CPI-based index shows marked losses. These diverging signals, however, merely reflect data availability at the current edge. With regard to the geographical focus of Austria’s international trade relations, we observe a further shift toward overseas markets in the US dollar area and China, away from Western Europe and Russia. The real effective exchange rate for the tourism industry, which we developed during the previous update and enhanced during this update, reflects a more pronounced appreciation in the tourism sector than in the service sector as a whole. However, according to the latest figures on overnight stays this loss in price competitiveness has had no significant dampening effect on tourism demand in recent months. Finally, we address the economic costs of Austria’s current inflation differential to the euro area, which has induced a real appreciation. In two simulations, we quantify realized effects and calculate expected future losses driven by higher unit labor costs. In total, we find that the loss in price competitiveness may cause the Austrian economy to shrink by around ¾ to 1 percentage point between 2022 and 2025.

JEL classification: C43, F14, F47

Keywords: international competitiveness, effective exchange rate index, tourism services

Fluctuations in the bilateral exchange rate will affect the terms of trade between the exporting and the importing firm, i.e. they have an impact on the profitability of the exporter or the costs of foreign inputs for the importer. To get a more general – economy-wide – perspective on the development of the terms of trade, bilateral exchange rates of the key trading partner countries are mapped into a nominal effective exchange rate index. The mapping of bilateral exchange rates into an index is based on weights reflecting the importance of a partner country in cross-border trade. Thus, the nominal effective exchange rate index is a trade-weighted basket of currencies expressed as an index and it shows the relative price of the domestic currency vis-à-vis the currencies of the main trading partners.

From a consumer perspective, a rising exchange rate index implies an appreciation and thus a gain in purchasing power because in the short term – i.e. for given prices in foreign currency – consumers will pay less for a given bundle of goods and services upon conversion into domestic currency. A falling index implies a depreciation and hence a loss in purchasing power. From the perspective of producers, an upward movement in the nominal effective exchange rate index signals that the relative price between domestic and foreign goods and services has increased; hence a rising index implies a short-term deterioration of price competitiveness. ³¹ In turn, a declining index signals an improvement in price competitiveness.

When we add relative price indices from the home and foreign country pairs to the nominal effective exchange rate, we can take the development of domestic and foreign prices into account. The resulting real effective exchange rate index allows to apply a medium to longer-term perspective, accounting for price adjustments. The OeNB and WIFO (Austrian Institute of Economic Research) compile and update the effective exchange rate indices based on bilateral exchange rates between the euro and the currencies of Austria’s 55 biggest trading partners, including 37 non-euro area countries. The computation is based on the harmonized Eurosystem methodology (ECB, 2020). We continue to use the conceptual framework outlined in Köhler-Töglhofer and Magerl (2013) and Köhler-Töglhofer (1999) and implement the 2021 release of OECD-TiVA (Trade in Value Added) input-output tables on bilateral foreign trade flows to update the country weights. With the current update, the three-year averaging period for adjusting the bilateral exchange rate weights is moved forward from 2013–2015 to 2016–2018, a period not yet affected by the COVID-19-induced turbulences in foreign trade. The previous update of the Austrian indices was based on the 2018 release of the OECD-TiVA input-output tables (Glauninger et al., 2021). The new weights based on the 2016–2018 period apply to all observations beginning with January 2016. Earlier observations have been chain-linked to the new exchange rate indices; i.e. we freeze previous country weights based on successive waves of three-year averages.

The aggregate index is a trade-weighted average of four subindices calculated separately for

• manufactured goods,
• food and beverages,
• raw materials/energy products, and
• services,

The computation of the real effective exchange rate index needs pairs of relative price indices between Austria and each trading partner. This requirement – in combination with the number of countries included in the basket – limits the set of available price indices. The HICP/CPI (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Consumer Price Index) is the only price index published by all 55 countries included in the basket which enables us to compute real effective exchange rates based on HICP/CPI indices for the four subindices as well as for the aggregate index. ³² The current sample of 55 countries covers 96% of Austrian exports. We continue to add the export shares of countries not included in the index (rest of the world, RoW) to the weight of the USA, based on the assumption that these trade flows are invoiced in US dollars (Gopinath and Itskhoki, 2022; see table A1 in the annex).

We also use three additional price indices reflecting the competitive position of more narrow sectors of the Austrian economy vis-à-vis a less comprehensive group of countries. ³³

For many activities, wages are the largest cost component. A real effective exchange rate index based on unit labor costs (ULC) – rather than consumer prices – will therefore provide a better indication of shifts in the cost competitiveness of Austrian firms. Data on the economy-wide wage bill are only available for 31 countries out of the total sample of 55 countries. We compute the real effective exchange rate deflated with unit labor costs for the total economy and for the service sector. ³⁴

The key advantages of the HICP/CPI are timely availability and international comparability. The HICP/CPI, however, covers goods and services consumed by private households. Hence, the prices of nontradable goods are also included, making them an imperfect indicator of variations in international price competitiveness. The producer price index (PPI) measures the development of the average selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. It is focused on producers and thus mirrors their pricing behavior with respect to trade flows better. The PPIs are published for 26 countries accounting for 80% of foreign trade in goods, and we use the PPI to compute an alternative real effective exchange rate subindex for manufacturing.

Austria’s surplus in international trade of tourism services warrants a separate effective exchange rate more closely related to travel expenditures. We improve the effective exchange rate index for international trade in tourism services presented in Glauninger et al. (2021) by extracting tourism-related services from total international trade in services and compute a basket with country weights based purely on bilateral tourism exports and imports. The weights based on trade in tourism services should better reflect the competitive position vis-à-vis direct competitors in this market. We combine the nominal effective exchange rate index with price indices for restaurants and hotels in the HICP/CPI (COICOP division 11). The resulting real effective index covers changes in the competitive position of Austria’s tourism sector better than headline inflation rates. The COICOP 11 division of the HICP/CPI is available for 40 countries accounting for 92% of Austria’s trade in tourism services. ³⁵

Table 1 compares the four real effective exchange rate indices with respect to their composition and their timeliness of publication. In what follows, section 1 addresses the recalculation of the country weights based on the trade relations prevailing during the period 2016–2018. In section 2, the developments of the different exchange rate specifications are presented and described. Section 3 is dedicated to the current inflation differential of the Austrian economy to the euro area and the possible consequences for Austria’s price competitiveness.

Table 1: Overview of composition and publication frequency for real exchange rate indices based on different deflators  

	HICP (CPI)	COICOP 11	ULC	PPI
Number of countries	55	40	31	26
Representing .. percent of AT trade	96% of total trade	92% of trade in tourism services	82% of total trade	79% of trade in goods
Frequency	monthly	monthly	quarterly	quarterly
Latest available data	July 2023	July 2023	Q1 23	Q4 22
Source: OeNB/WIFO.

1 Country weights – ranking of Austria’s trading partners comparatively stable

1.1 Short-run changes in country weights

Reflecting the continuing shift towards overseas and CESEE markets, the short-run gains are concentrated on the USA-RoW (+0.8), Poland (+0.4), and Czechia (+0.3). The USA-RoW (8%) and China (7.8%) continued their neck-and-neck race for the second largest weight in the trade basket, with the USA-RoW benefiting from the role of the US dollar as a reference currency in international trade, while China’s position is firmly based on its competitive position on third markets.

Figure 1 gives an overview of the short-run rebalancing of Austria’s international trade pattern: Countries showing sizable gains in their weight are colored in green while countries experiencing trade divergence are colored in blue. All countries with a minor variation in their weights (+/– 0.1 percentage points) are presented in grey. Beyond the USA and CESEE, Austrian firms intensified their trading relations with Mexican and Chinese firms.

1.2 Long-run changes in country weights

1.3 The role of competition from third countries on foreign markets

In countries where the single export weight is bigger than the double export weight, local firms are strong competitors for Austrian firms on their home market, but they are less important with respect to other destination markets. For example, Germany has a single export weight of 31.4% and a double weight of 23.3%, which means that German firms compete more intensively with Austrian firms on the German market itself, rather than on third country markets. One explanation for this pattern could be that German lead firms manage the activities of exporters within the integrated supply chains of the central European manufacturing core (Stehrer and Stöllinger, 2015). The manufacturing core comprises Germany, Austria and the four Visegrad countries. As can be seen in chart 1, the single export weight is above the double export weight for most members of the manufacturing core. Similarly, Switzerland as a home base for large multinational firms shows a distinctively higher single export weight.

There are several countries in the basket for the effective exchange rate with a relatively higher double export weight. China stands out as a country with a particularly high double export weight; the difference being two times its single weight. This shows the strong competitive pressure for Austrian firms emanating from Chinese exporters, while China’s home market for manufactured products appears relatively less penetrated. To a lesser extent, this also holds for firms from the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium and Japan.

Table A3 in the annex compares the values for the current reference period 2016–2018 with values from the base period 1998–2000, thus reflecting the development of double export weights over the last two decades. French and US exporters have become smaller competitors on Austrian destination markets. To a weaker extent, producers domiciled in Germany, Japan, the UK or Italy have also shifted their focus toward alternative markets. The competitive pressure from Chinese firms on Austrian export markets, on the other hand, moved from almost irrelevant at the turn of the century into the range of the fiercest competitors in recent years. The Netherlands moved from a neutral toward a more competitive position, while firms from Hungary and Switzerland intensified their pressure on established Austrian export markets.

The country weights for Austria’s international trade in services are based on single export and imports weights. They show only small changes over time and – compared to goods – Austria’s foreign trade in services is more concentrated on the EU27. The share of exports/imports concerning the EU27 was 73.1%, and that for the euro area (EA19) 58.7%. Individual countries showing a high trading intensity with Austria are Germany (35.4%), the USA-RoW (7.5%) and Switzerland (6.2%). The biggest category among Austria’s services exports are expenditures by foreigners for travel. According to current account data for the average from 2016 through 2018, this category amounted to 30.7% of total services exports. Exports of other business-related services reached 22.7%, while transport captured 23.2% and telecommunication made up 9.8% of services exports.

The computation of the weights for imports and exports of raw materials and energy is also based on single export weights. Due to the geographical distribution of raw material producers, non-EU27 countries have a higher share (41%) in total imports. Again, Germany tops the country ranking with 29.4%. Other important source countries for energy and raw material imports include the USA-RoW (16.2%) and Russia (14.5%).

The weights in the subindex for food and beverages are very concentrated on countries in close proximity to Austria. The EU27 receives 72.6% of Austria’s exports and accounts for 82% of its imports. Austria’s main trading partner is Germany with a share of 34.6% in exports and 37.6% imports, followed by Italy with a share of 11.5% in exports and 10.9% in imports.

2 Price competitiveness after the European government debt crisis

The development from the beginning of 2016 until July 2023 was characterized by a nominal and real appreciation of 4½%. The wave-like pattern shows peaks in September 2018, December 2020 and the most recent observation from July 2023, and troughs in February 2017, January 2020 and 2022. Yearly changes in the nominal and real effective exchange rate closely follow variations in the euro-dollar relation (see chart 7 in Url, 2023).

The relative monetary policy stance between the central banks in America and Europe has a strong short-term influence on the nominal exchange rate. The US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) started to lift its target rate in December 2015, well ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB). The sudden reversal of the Fed’s policy from a tightening cycle to providing cheap liquidity to the markets at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic supported the euro, and Austria’s effective exchange rate appreciated swiftly over the course of the year. Extensive disruptions of international trade flows and supply chains due to the COVID-19-related lockdowns did not weigh heavily on the euro’s nominal exchange rate. The surge in energy prices after the Russian attack on Ukraine put inflationary concerns back on the agenda of monetary policy committees. As the Fed started tightening its monetary policy stance earlier and with bigger steps, we recorded nominal exchange rate movements along the tightening process. On top, we notice a special effect in the Austrian effective exchange rate, namely the development of the Turkish lira. Turkey’s exceptionally expansive monetary policy generated a devaluation of the lira vis-à-vis the euro by 800% between the start of 2016 and July 2023. Despite the small weight of the lira in the Austrian index (1.16%) the large devaluation contributed significantly to the nominal appreciation of the Austrian effective exchange rate. In real terms, however, the appreciation of the euro vis-à-vis the lira was compensated by the considerable inflation differential.

2.1 Energy price shock widened inflation differential in the euro area

The varying degree of indexation and implementation of regulatory measures to cap prices created large inflation differentials within the euro area. The maximum spread occurred in August 2022 with a span in the inflation rate of 18.6 percentage points between Estonia and France. The direct effect on energy-related items in the consumer basket was considerably larger in the Baltic countries, and the Netherlands. France, Spain and Malta, on the other hand, experienced a low contribution of energy-related inflation to the general inflation rate. During the year 2022, the contribution of energy prices to the general inflation rate was lower in Austria than the euro area average. This pattern changed in early 2023, when falling wholesale price for energy were not fully passed on to Austrian customers. Moreover, the pass-through of higher energy costs into other product and services prices accelerated and, finally, wage demands in negotiations between employers and unions responded to the drop in purchasing power.

2.2 Real appreciation reinforced by positive inflation differential

However, this picture reverses at the end of the sample. A positive inflation differential emerged between Austria and the euro area, and the loss in price competitiveness due to the nominal appreciation since the start of the Ukraine war was reinforced by higher inflation in Austria. Furthermore, Austria has seen a comparatively stronger pass-through of high energy prices into the prices of other items covered in the consumer basket. Measured in nominal terms, the competitive position of Austria has deteriorated only slightly since February 2022 (+0.8% appreciation). In real terms, however, Austria’s HICP/CPI-deflated index gained 2.3% until June 2023.

The HICP/CPI covers selling prices for consumers across the most important items in the consumer basket. Besides the fact that such an index includes many non-traded goods and services, variations in selling prices can also result from adjustments in the trading margin of domestic retailers. Such changes affect neither Austria’s exporters nor its import-competing firms. The use of alternative price indices allows a closer view on the competitive position of Austrian firms from different angles. For example, the use a unit labor cost (ULC) index opens a perspective more related to cost competitiveness. Unit labor costs show the ratio between the gross compensation paid to employees and the output produced. Increases in wages will drive up unit labor costs while higher productivity will dampen unit labor costs. We use unit labor costs for the total economy for a sample of 31 countries at the quarterly frequency.

Chart 3 presents quarterly data for the HICP/CPI-deflated and the ULC-deflated real effective exchange rate indices for the total economy. The two indices have moved grossly in tandem, and their levels have been converging over the last few years – except in the second quarter of 2020 and the following winter season, when the widespread use of short-term work measures led to a spike in Austria’s relative unit labor costs. Additional factors creating a bias in international comparisons of unit labor costs during the COVID-19 pandemic are summarized by Ragacs and Vondra (2021, box 4). Due to a publication lag, the ULC-based exchange rate index ends in the first quarter of 2023. In this specific quarter, consumer prices diverged strongly from unit labor costs, because Austrian wage contracts covering the year 2023 did not fully reflect the strong upswing in the HICP during the second half of 2022. Thus, the cost competitiveness of Austrian firms continued to improve in early 2023. Subsequent rounds of wage negotiations during the first half of 2023 – not yet recorded in unit labor costs – took greater account of the upswing in inflation and may drive the ULC-based effective exchange rate closer to the timelier HICP/CPI version. We therefore expect the ULC-deflated index to worsen during 2023 (see section 3).

The sudden worsening of cost competitiveness related to the COVID-19 pandemic had been fully corrected by the first quarter of 2023. This adjustment was primarily a consequence of normalized working hours and output levels once the pandemic was over. Because the monetary transfers stabilizing the wage income of workers during a short-term work episode are accounted as wage payments in the national accounts, these schemes moved the ratio between the gross wage bill and output sharply up, thus creating a temporary upward bias in unit labor costs. Since the beginning of 1999, the ULC-based index has declined by 4.3%, indicating an improvement of Austria’s cost competitiveness.

The real effective appreciation resulting from high domestic inflation in consumer prices does not necessarily reflect the position of Austrian manufacturing firms with respect to international competitors. Chart 4 compares the HICP/CPI-based real effective index with the index based on producer prices (PPI) using the weights for manufactured goods trade. By definition, the producer price index focuses on manufactured goods, i.e. leaving aside services, and on prices received by manufacturing firms rather than paid by consumers. Furthermore, the sample of 26 trading partners is considerably smaller, and the PPI has a lower reporting frequency (quarterly) and a longer publication lag. The PPI is now available until the end of 2022. During 2022, the HCPI/CPI-based effective exchange rate index remained almost constant (–0.1%) while the PPI-based index depreciated by 4.6%. The widening gap is not related to the smaller sample of the PPI-based index. If we restrict the set of countries in the HICP/CPI-based index to the smaller PPI sample, a similar divergence emerges. The deviation between both price indices points to relatively higher inflation for services in Austria.

Service exports generated a substantial surplus of EUR 7.1 billion in the 2022 current account, which was still significantly smaller than the surplus from 2019 (EUR 9.7 billion). Lockdowns and travel restrictions continued to impair international trade flows during the first half of 2022. The real effective exchange rate indices for services are depicted in chart 5. The deflators used are either the HICP/CPI or unit labor costs for the total economy, and the country weights are computed on the basis of import and export flows in services. Similar to chart 4, the HICP/CPI-based index shows a marked appreciation starting in the second half of 2022 and still ongoing. Since the start of 2022, the HICP/CPI-based real effective exchange rate has increased by 0.4%. The ULC-based index, on the other hand, decreased by 3.0%, reflecting the restrained adjustment of wages in the first quarter of 2023. In the long run, both indices show a small decrease by 6.1% (ULC) and 1.3% (HICP/CPI) until the first quarter of 2023.

Within international trade in services, tourism-related activities take a special role. Although lockdowns and travel restrictions continued to impair the tourism industry during the first half of 2022, revenues from exports have been slowly returning to levels seen before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Guests from overseas were slow to return Austria, whose closer vicinity to the war zone in Ukraine created an additional obstacle for guests from overseas. Added to this is the challenge posed by the relatively sharp rise in Austrian restaurant and hotel prices (COICOP 11). Higher prices and the weaker growth expectations slightly dampen overall tourism exports (Fritz and Ehn-Fragner, 2023). The exact response of foreign consumers to higher prices is not yet apparent; it may range from fewer or shorter trips to visitors opting for offers in lower quality segments or restraining travel-related expenses. Because expenditures on hotels and restaurants are part of the regular HICP basket, data for this price index are available on a monthly frequency up to June 2023. Due to the strong seasonality in the series (on chart 5), we compute only annual growth rates in the real effective subindex for tourism. At +2.9% in the second quarter 2023, the development over the last year implies a relative loss in price competitiveness. Since the beginning of 1999, the real effective exchange rate for tourism services climbed by 5.9%; with respect to the lowest level of the index in the third quarter 2010, the real appreciation amounts to 14.9%. If the COICOP 11 component of the HICP/CPI correctly accounts for quality improvements, Austria’s tourism industry experienced a serious loss in price competitiveness. Besides negative COVID-19 effects during 2021, this contributes to Austria’s loss in market share of international tourism exports in 2021 (Peneder et al., 2023).

3 Austria’s higher inflation jeopardizes competitiveness position

The differential is usually traced back to three key differences between Austria and the euro area aggregate (Fritzer 2023):

1. Fiscal policy mix: The Austrian government did not set direct price interventions as quickly and comprehensively as other euro area countries, but instead handed out substantial transfer payments to households and companies (see Prammer and Reiss, 2023; and Fritzer et al., 2023, for more details). This policy mix was recommended by big Austrian economic research institutes (Neusser et al., 2022) in order not to undermine the effects of price signals.
2. Delayed transmission of global energy prices to end users. The price adjustment frequency of regulated energy price contracts is lower in Austria than in other euro area countries. Therefore, the contribution of rising energy prices to inflation was initially lower but increased substantially with a lag of around one year.
3. Higher inflation of restaurant prices and increasing contribution of nonenergy industrial goods. During the first half of 2023, the Austrian HICP inflation rate for hotel and restaurant services surpassed its euro area equivalent by more than 4 percentage points. The contribution from hotels and restaurants to HICP inflation is further amplified by higher weights of these items in the Austrian consumer basket compared to the euro area average. These two facts explain more than half of the inflation differential in the services sector. In the nonenergy industrial goods sector, a higher market concentration in some sectors (furniture trade, drugstores, DIY stores) could be a driver of stronger price increases in Austria.

This sizable inflation differential is a cause of concern. The nominal appreciation and the increases in unit labor costs that follow from the wage bargaining process may jeopardize the price competitiveness of the Austrian economy. In the following, we will therefore take a closer look at two issues: (1) How might the REER (real effective exchange rate) have evolved since the second half of 2022 if the Austrian inflation rate had corresponded to that in the euro area (i.e. no inflation differential to the euro area). (2) What are the economic consequences regarding output and employment, given not only past developments but also current inflation forecasts, which indicate a sizable differential in future unit labor costs.

3.1 Realized inflation differential explains half of past appreciation and has induced a loss in price competitiveness

Building upon the calculations in section 2, we thus aim to, first, quantify the already realized effects. We do this by comparing the actual real effective exchange rate index shown in chart 2 with a counterfactual one, which we construct by deflating the nominal effective exchange rate for the Austrian economy with the euro area inflation rate. In contrast to all other charts, which are normalized to 1999 Q1=100, in chart 6 we focus only on the most recent development, hence we normalize the exchange rates to 2020 Q1 = 100. Until summer 2022, the inflation rates in Austria and the euro area (relative to all Austrian trading partners) moved in sync but then diverged, reflecting the increasing inflation differential discussed above. So, the inflation differential induced a stronger appreciation. Between August 2022 and July 2023, the difference was 2.4 percentage points. Given total real appreciation in the last twelve months of 4.9 percent, this means that roughly ½ of the overall real appreciation can be attributed to the higher inflation.

What are the effects of this real appreciation on output and employment? To assess the macroeconomic effect of this shock we use the OeNB’s Austrian Quarterly Model (Schneider und Leibrecht, 2006), which is regularly used for forecasting exercises and macroeconomic shock simulations. We shock the competitors’ export prices in domestic currency with the HICP inflation rate differential from Austria to the euro area between 2022 Q3 to 2023 Q2 – corrected for the historical average (2011–2019) of the quarterly HICP differential of 0.6 percentage points. For the second half of 2023, we hold the (annualized) effect constant and set the shock to zero thereafter. The model results are as follows: The growing inflation differential to the euro area, which reached around 2 percentage points (corrected for the historical differential), induced a negative GDP effect of 0.2 percentage points in 2023 and will dampen GDP growth in 2024 by 0.1 percentage point. This GDP effect corresponds to a loss of around 7,500 jobs in 2023. According to this simulation, the real appreciation should already have had a sizable effect on GDP growth and employment in Austria. In the next section we will focus on the second-round effects of the currently high inflation episode and highlight the resulting challenges for the Austrian economy.

3.2 Stronger wage growth partly explains persistent inflation gap, fuels unit labor cost growth and induces a further appreciation

The effects of a permanent deterioration in Austria’s cost competitiveness relative to its trading partners by 6 percentage points were also simulated using the OeNB’s macro model. In the medium term, GDP will be almost ¾ percentage points lower, and almost 18,000 jobs would be at risk.

The OeNB model does not permit a breakdown of the effects or shock inputs by sector. For this reason, forecasts and scenarios are simulated at the economy-wide level with an increase in unit labor costs measured at the economy level. But since historically unit labor costs have risen less sharply in the trade-exposed sector, this may invite the conclusion that the simulation results represent an upper bound.

However, the OeNB’s model is empirically estimated on the structures and relationships observed in the past and thus also implicitly takes into account lower growth in unit labor costs in industry compared to the economy as a whole in the calibration of an economy-wide unit labor cost shock. Assuming that the past patterns can be extrapolated into the future and that unit labor costs in industry will keep growing around half as much as for the whole economy, the above simulation results should not systematically overestimate the effects.

If the manufacturing industry reduces its profit margins as a result of an increase in unit labor costs to a higher degree than historically this would result in lower effects. However, a value-added deflator decomposition in the OeNB’s June 2023 forecast (Fritzer et al., 2023) showed a negative contribution of manufacturing profits to the value-added deflator for the high inflation period so far. The absorption potential of this sector for the projection period is therefore expected to be minor.

By contrast, wages are expected to grow at nearly the same rate in the manufacturing industry and the economy as a whole in 2023 and 2024. The first wage negotiations in autumn (for workers of the metal industry and other industrial sectors) usually set the bar for the successive negotiations into 2024. If the past is any indication, strong sectoral differences are unlikely. Inflation rates have dwarfed productivity growth since the second half of 2021, which will render relative differences in wage settlements between the highly productive industry and more labor-intensive service sectors negligible. This would imply that the simulation results presented above rather represent a lower bound of effects, as it can be assumed that unit labor costs of the industry will develop more in line with the total economy and not half its rate as in the past.

Summary

This article aimed at shedding some light on the latter by quantifying the effects of above-average inflation and wage developments in Austria on its competitive position in international trade. While in the long run the macroeconomic competitiveness position depends on structural factors, in the short run it is determined by price and cost competitiveness of the tradeable goods and services sectors (Peneder et al., 2021).

Using data on trade flows of Austria and its 55 key trading partners over the period 2016–2018 the OeNB, in cooperation with WIFO (Austrian Institute of Economic Research), has recalculated the aggregate real effective exchange rate index and its four subindices from January 2016 onward. Our four subindices cover manufactured goods, food and beverages, raw materials and energy products, and services. Individual country weights in the subindex for manufactured goods continue to be calculated on the basis of single (bilateral) import and double (multilateral) export weights. The remaining subindices use only single (bilateral) import and export weights. All in all, we use four different deflators to calculate the harmonized price competitiveness indicators, each having its own pros and cons in terms of timely availability across countries, international comparability, and the degree of focus on tradable goods. The four deflators are the HICP/CPI, the tourism-related components of the HICP/CPI, producer prices, and the unit labor costs of the total economy.

The newly derived weighting schemes show that the geographical focus of Austria’s international trade relations between 2016 and 2018 shifted toward overseas markets in the USA (including the rest of the world), China and Mexico but also towards CESEE countries like Poland and Czechia. We record strong reductions in the direct bilateral and double weights of Germany, but also vis-à-vis France and Switzerland. Russia also experienced a significant drop in the weight, which was at that time already mainly the consequence of the sanctions following the occupation of Crimea.

Looking at the latest developments, the new calculations confirm the impression that Austria’s competitive position has deteriorated, mainly as a result of nominal exchange rate movements, but recently also due to relatively higher inflation in Austria. This development is visible in the parallel movement of the nominal and real effective exchange rate indices (deflated by HICP inflation). Although the real effective exchange rate indices deflated by relative unit labor costs or producer prices, respectively, do not show a deterioration in price competitiveness until the first quarter of 2023, we expect a V-shaped appreciation over the next few quarters based on relatively high wage settlements and producer price inflation in Austria. According to the most recent forecasts, Austria will face a stronger wage growth and higher unit labor costs than their euro area peers and hence a real appreciation in 2024 and 2025. We quantified this loss in price competitiveness in terms of lower real GDP growth and employment in two steps: first we assess the direct losses due to higher inflation with a counterfactual analysis assuming that Austria had the same inflation path as the euro area up until mid-2023. In a second step we employ the most recent ULC forecasts and simulate potential future losses in price competitiveness of second-round effects. Both shocks are not orthogonal and hence cannot be added up. As outlined in the main text, there is reason to believe that our estimated impacts of the second-round effects represent a lower bound. Thus, the sum of the overall negative GDP impact is likely to be around ¾ to 1 percentage point between 2022 and 2025.

Recently, the service sector exhibited a V-shaped evolution of the real effective exchange rate too. In contrast to manufacturing, tourism, as the main exposed service sector, continued its gradual appreciation since 2015. Despite its loss in price competitiveness, the Austrian tourism industry recorded the second highest number of overnight stays in the summer season of 2023 since 1980, but lower real spending by foreign guests already hints at declining tourism spending.

Appendix

Table A1: Weighting scheme of the exchange rate index  

	Austrian exports								Austrian imports
	Manu- factured goods	Raw materials, energy products	Food	Goods	Services	Travel	Services without travel	Total	Manu- factured goods	Raw materials, energy products	Food	Goods
	Country weights in %, recalculated for the period from 2016 to 2018
Belgium	2.56	0.55	1.02	2.34	1.51	1.89	1.34	2.09	1.48	0.50	1.69	1.38
Bulgaria	0.34	0.24	0.48	0.34	0.46	0.32	0.52	0.38	0.38	0.12	0.34	0.35
Croatia	0.46	0.98	1.40	0.55	0.65	0.47	0.73	0.58	0.45	0.52	0.54	0.46
Cyprus	0.02	0.00	0.09	0.02	0.25	0.04	0.34	0.09	0.01	0.01	0.10	0.01
Czechia	3.00	4.30	2.42	3.03	2.50	2.29	2.59	2.87	4.07	7.17	2.94	4.36
Denmark	0.64	0.25	0.71	0.63	0.65	0.96	0.52	0.63	0.45	0.22	0.63	0.44
Estonia	0.09	0.04	0.13	0.09	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.08	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.03
Finland	0.59	0.19	0.28	0.55	0.62	0.36	0.74	0.57	0.37	0.29	0.05	0.34
France	5.01	1.39	2.29	4.62	2.16	1.40	2.50	3.89	2.98	0.74	3.14	2.73
Germany	23.29	22.71	34.58	24.09	40.32	46.69	37.50	28.92	37.84	29.41	37.61	36.83
Greece	0.24	0.14	0.69	0.27	0.27	0.18	0.31	0.27	0.11	0.12	0.79	0.16
Hungary	1.53	9.41	3.80	2.12	2.62	3.59	2.19	2.27	2.39	3.02	5.30	2.67
Ireland	0.79	0.02	0.18	0.71	1.18	0.29	1.57	0.85	0.40	0.06	0.68	0.38
Italy	6.74	18.07	11.52	7.70	4.66	4.17	4.88	6.79	6.25	3.94	10.94	6.31
Latvia	0.09	0.06	0.06	0.08	0.09	0.10	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	0.05	0.03
Lithuania	0.15	0.11	0.14	0.15	0.09	0.10	0.09	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.20	0.09
Luxembourg	0.15	0.04	0.06	0.14	0.85	0.43	1.04	0.35	0.25	0.01	0.09	0.21
Malta	0.02	0.03	0.08	0.02	0.31	0.03	0.43	0.11	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01
Netherlands	3.22	0.89	2.72	3.06	4.23	6.63	3.17	3.41	2.62	2.02	4.83	2.71
Poland	3.41	1.18	1.91	3.18	1.64	1.29	1.80	2.72	2.48	2.42	4.30	2.61
Portugal	0.46	0.15	0.17	0.42	0.19	0.12	0.22	0.35	0.49	0.06	0.16	0.41
Romania	1.41	1.09	1.28	1.38	1.61	1.44	1.68	1.45	0.97	0.76	0.99	0.95
Slovakia	1.53	4.51	1.70	1.70	1.55	1.52	1.57	1.66	2.04	3.55	1.50	2.18
Slovenia	0.76	9.31	2.87	1.37	1.07	1.26	0.98	1.28	1.21	2.64	0.87	1.36
Spain	2.44	0.76	1.20	2.26	0.87	0.61	0.98	1.85	1.71	0.38	3.99	1.72
Sweden	1.23	0.25	0.90	1.15	1.44	1.00	1.63	1.24	1.03	0.93	0.23	0.96
Australia	0.52	0.09	1.11	0.54	0.27	0.43	0.20	0.46	0.04	0.37	0.13	0.09
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.15	0.18	0.36	0.17	0.18	0.19	0.17	0.17	0.42	0.31	0.08	0.38
Brazil	0.65	0.13	0.44	0.61	0.14	0.18	0.13	0.47	0.13	0.62	0.99	0.25
Canada	0.80	0.03	0.19	0.71	0.42	0.34	0.45	0.62	0.25	0.16	0.10	0.23
Chile	0.11	0.00	0.23	0.12	0.05	0.03	0.06	0.10	0.06	0.16	0.37	0.09
China	8.46	3.68	0.51	7.63	1.01	0.92	1.06	5.66	7.15	0.48	0.60	5.89
Hong Kong	0.82	0.19	0.22	0.74	0.16	0.16	0.17	0.57	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.11
Iceland	0.02	0.00	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	0.04
India	1.16	0.74	0.25	1.07	0.21	0.22	0.20	0.81	0.67	0.15	0.37	0.59
Iran	0.18	0.02	0.08	0.16	0.07	0.00	0.10	0.13	0.01	1.24	0.06	0.16
Israel	0.30	0.34	0.20	0.29	0.24	0.45	0.15	0.28	0.13	0.04	0.09	0.12
Japan	2.15	1.41	0.70	2.01	0.45	0.49	0.43	1.54	1.79	0.04	0.05	1.46
Malaysia	0.57	0.01	0.04	0.50	0.10	0.03	0.14	0.38	0.31	0.01	0.02	0.25
Mexico	0.96	0.04	0.03	0.84	0.17	0.10	0.20	0.64	0.27	0.39	0.21	0.28
New Zealand	0.08	0.00	0.08	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	0.20	0.04
Norway	0.31	0.03	0.20	0.28	0.41	0.39	0.42	0.32	0.19	0.24	0.40	0.21
Russian Federation	1.58	0.87	1.29	1.52	1.51	1.38	1.57	1.52	0.30	14.47	0.07	1.96
Saudi Arabia	0.30	0.04	0.24	0.28	0.28	0.36	0.25	0.28	0.02	0.44	0.00	0.07
Serbia	0.34	0.37	0.42	0.35	0.32	0.33	0.31	0.34	0.32	0.17	0.67	0.33
Singapore	0.68	0.00	0.09	0.60	0.19	0.10	0.23	0.48	0.13	0.05	0.01	0.11
South Africa	0.43	0.04	0.29	0.40	0.11	0.09	0.12	0.31	0.11	0.95	0.41	0.23
South Korea	1.79	0.72	0.73	1.66	0.24	0.29	0.21	1.24	0.69	0.05	0.05	0.57
Switzerland	3.31	6.50	3.80	3.52	7.87	6.88	8.32	4.81	4.72	0.89	3.00	4.14
Taiwan	0.71	0.14	0.09	0.64	0.09	0.18	0.06	0.48	0.58	0.01	0.01	0.47
Turkey	1.52	1.54	0.84	1.47	0.97	0.44	1.21	1.32	1.10	0.47	2.13	1.10
Ukraine	0.30	0.34	0.29	0.30	0.31	0.43	0.26	0.30	0.18	2.10	0.37	0.42
United Arab Emirates	0.48	0.11	0.26	0.45	0.55	0.45	0.59	0.48	0.11	0.02	0.01	0.09
United Kingdom	3.16	1.75	1.96	2.99	4.37	3.86	4.59	3.40	2.05	0.94	1.05	1.84
USA	7.99	4.02	12.37	8.10	7.35	3.93	8.86	7.88	7.92	16.20	6.58	8.80
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Source: OeNB/WIFO.

Table A1 continued: Weighting scheme of the exchange rate index  

	Austrian imports				Austrian exports and imports
	Services	Travel	Services without travel	Total	Manu- factured goods	Raw materials, energy products	Food	Goods	Services	Travel	Services without travel	Total
	Country weights in %, recalculated for the period from 2016 to 2018
Belgium	1.89	0.59	2.19	1.51	2.03	0.51	1.36	1.85	1.68	1.45	1.76	1.81
Bulgaria	1.17	0.35	1.36	0.55	0.36	0.16	0.41	0.35	0.78	0.33	0.93	0.46
Croatia	2.54	8.91	1.04	0.99	0.45	0.66	0.96	0.51	1.51	3.33	0.88	0.78
Cyprus	0.33	0.40	0.32	0.09	0.01	0.01	0.09	0.02	0.29	0.16	0.33	0.09
Czechia	2.75	1.81	2.97	3.95	3.52	6.29	2.68	3.70	2.61	2.13	2.78	3.40
Denmark	0.41	0.41	0.42	0.43	0.55	0.23	0.67	0.53	0.54	0.77	0.47	0.53
Estonia	0.16	0.16	0.16	0.07	0.06	0.04	0.07	0.06	0.11	0.10	0.11	0.07
Finland	1.04	0.28	1.23	0.52	0.48	0.26	0.17	0.44	0.81	0.33	0.98	0.54
France	2.24	3.20	2.01	2.61	4.02	0.94	2.72	3.66	2.20	2.01	2.26	3.25
Germany	29.54	23.56	30.94	34.99	30.41	27.37	36.12	30.56	35.43	38.84	34.27	31.91
Greece	1.05	3.60	0.45	0.39	0.18	0.13	0.74	0.22	0.62	1.34	0.38	0.33
Hungary	3.27	2.98	3.34	2.82	1.95	4.97	4.56	2.40	2.92	3.38	2.76	2.54
Ireland	2.26	0.81	2.60	0.86	0.60	0.05	0.43	0.54	1.67	0.47	2.08	0.85
Italy	5.67	15.40	3.39	6.15	6.50	8.24	11.22	6.99	5.12	7.98	4.15	6.48
Latvia	0.17	0.19	0.16	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.05	0.06	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.08
Lithuania	0.69	0.10	0.83	0.24	0.12	0.07	0.17	0.12	0.36	0.10	0.45	0.19
Luxembourg	1.08	0.17	1.29	0.43	0.20	0.02	0.07	0.18	0.96	0.34	1.16	0.39
Malta	0.21	0.30	0.19	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.04	0.02	0.26	0.12	0.31	0.08
Netherlands	2.94	0.83	3.43	2.77	2.93	1.67	3.79	2.88	3.64	4.66	3.30	3.09
Poland	2.86	0.82	3.34	2.67	2.96	2.04	3.12	2.89	2.19	1.13	2.55	2.70
Portugal	0.48	0.95	0.37	0.43	0.47	0.09	0.16	0.42	0.32	0.40	0.29	0.39
Romania	2.82	0.52	3.36	1.42	1.19	0.86	1.13	1.16	2.16	1.13	2.51	1.43
Slovakia	2.85	0.67	3.37	2.35	1.78	3.84	1.60	1.94	2.14	1.23	2.45	2.00
Slovenia	2.26	2.62	2.18	1.59	0.98	4.67	1.85	1.36	1.61	1.72	1.57	1.43
Spain	1.94	5.25	1.16	1.77	2.08	0.50	2.61	1.98	1.36	2.18	1.07	1.81
Sweden	1.89	0.83	2.14	1.20	1.13	0.72	0.56	1.05	1.64	0.94	1.88	1.22
Australia	0.32	0.72	0.23	0.15	0.29	0.28	0.62	0.31	0.30	0.53	0.22	0.31
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.28	0.42	0.24	0.35	0.28	0.27	0.22	0.28	0.22	0.27	0.21	0.26
Brazil	0.29	0.32	0.28	0.26	0.40	0.47	0.72	0.43	0.21	0.23	0.20	0.37
Canada	0.38	0.62	0.32	0.27	0.53	0.12	0.14	0.47	0.40	0.43	0.39	0.45
Chile	0.05	0.11	0.04	0.08	0.09	0.11	0.30	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.05	0.09
China	0.87	0.59	0.94	4.62	7.82	1.46	0.56	6.74	0.95	0.80	1.00	5.15
Hong Kong	0.26	0.27	0.25	0.15	0.49	0.06	0.11	0.42	0.21	0.20	0.21	0.36
Iceland	0.11	0.45	0.03	0.06	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.07	0.19	0.03	0.04
India	0.37	0.28	0.40	0.53	0.92	0.33	0.31	0.82	0.28	0.24	0.30	0.67
Iran	0.08	0.00	0.10	0.14	0.09	0.87	0.07	0.16	0.07	0.00	0.10	0.14
Israel	0.22	0.26	0.21	0.14	0.22	0.13	0.15	0.20	0.23	0.39	0.18	0.21
Japan	0.27	0.39	0.24	1.16	1.97	0.46	0.37	1.73	0.37	0.46	0.34	1.35
Malaysia	0.35	0.10	0.41	0.28	0.44	0.01	0.03	0.37	0.22	0.05	0.27	0.33
Mexico	0.14	0.23	0.11	0.24	0.62	0.28	0.12	0.56	0.16	0.15	0.16	0.45
New Zealand	0.07	0.24	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.14	0.06	0.07	0.11	0.05	0.06
Norway	0.28	0.53	0.23	0.23	0.25	0.17	0.30	0.25	0.35	0.44	0.32	0.28
Russian Federation	1.47	0.56	1.68	1.83	0.95	10.33	0.67	1.74	1.49	1.10	1.62	1.67
Saudi Arabia	0.17	0.06	0.20	0.10	0.16	0.32	0.12	0.17	0.23	0.26	0.22	0.19
Serbia	0.45	0.49	0.44	0.36	0.33	0.23	0.55	0.34	0.38	0.39	0.37	0.35
Singapore	0.24	0.29	0.22	0.14	0.41	0.03	0.05	0.35	0.21	0.16	0.23	0.31
South Africa	0.40	0.44	0.39	0.27	0.27	0.67	0.35	0.31	0.24	0.21	0.26	0.29
South Korea	0.16	0.22	0.15	0.46	1.25	0.25	0.38	1.10	0.20	0.27	0.18	0.85
Switzerland	4.14	2.32	4.57	4.14	4.00	2.60	3.40	3.83	6.18	5.33	6.47	4.48
Taiwan	0.16	0.09	0.17	0.39	0.65	0.05	0.05	0.55	0.12	0.15	0.11	0.43
Turkey	0.72	1.47	0.55	1.00	1.31	0.80	1.49	1.28	0.86	0.79	0.88	1.16
Ukraine	0.64	0.16	0.76	0.48	0.24	1.56	0.33	0.36	0.46	0.34	0.50	0.39
United Arab Emirates	0.60	0.72	0.57	0.22	0.30	0.04	0.13	0.27	0.57	0.54	0.58	0.35
United Kingdom	4.41	2.81	4.78	2.49	2.61	1.19	1.50	2.41	4.38	3.50	4.69	2.95
USA	7.58	9.10	7.22	8.49	7.96	12.49	9.44	8.46	7.45	5.69	8.06	8.18
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Source: OeNB/WIFO.

Table A2: Competition matrix for manufactured goods exports  

	Destinations
Competing countries	Belgium	Bulgaria	Croatia	Cyprus	Czechia	Denmark	Estonia	Finland	France	Germany
	Market shares in %, calculated for the period from 2016 to 2018
Belgium	8.76	2.47	1.68	1.76	1.93	2.58	1.81	1.54	6.14	3.51
Bulgaria	0.30	28.49	0.47	0.52	0.27	0.14	0.14	0.04	0.13	0.20
Croatia	0.08	0.21	34.36	0.29	0.12	0.04	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.10
Cyprus	0.01	0.05	0.01	11.17	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.01
Czechia	1.32	2.31	2.13	0.95	27.41	1.59	1.71	0.80	1.17	3.29
Denmark	0.45	0.23	0.41	0.33	0.31	36.48	1.01	1.24	0.31	0.60
Estonia	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.22	0.04	0.25	26.66	1.48	0.03	0.04
Finland	0.46	0.23	0.13	2.16	0.17	0.70	6.40	61.56	0.18	0.47
France	8.81	2.46	1.81	1.71	2.79	2.47	1.65	1.61	42.01	4.08
Germany	13.75	11.83	12.67	6.97	24.60	15.73	9.92	8.48	13.48	51.81
Greece	0.06	3.23	0.29	12.48	0.10	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.08	0.08
Hungary	0.70	3.54	4.16	0.35	2.64	0.70	1.08	0.29	0.61	1.74
Ireland	5.91	0.29	0.18	0.26	0.27	0.57	0.16	0.15	0.62	0.58
Italy	4.56	7.00	10.28	7.41	3.64	2.46	2.47	1.38	5.92	3.22
Latvia	0.03	0.08	0.02	0.14	0.08	0.35	5.28	0.17	0.02	0.04
Lithuania	0.09	0.16	0.10	0.08	0.14	0.57	4.24	0.32	0.07	0.09
Luxembourg	0.45	0.08	0.03	0.08	0.10	0.10	0.05	0.04	0.23	0.18
Malta	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.03
Netherlands	10.84	2.78	1.99	3.26	4.20	4.26	4.48	2.59	3.82	4.31
Poland	1.41	2.60	2.41	1.63	6.98	2.99	5.61	1.23	1.40	3.14
Portugal	0.38	0.23	0.17	0.35	0.22	0.34	0.15	0.12	0.92	0.41
Romania	0.37	4.22	0.62	0.33	1.12	0.24	0.39	0.17	0.60	0.91
Slovakia	0.37	1.55	1.65	0.57	4.88	0.66	0.68	0.19	0.68	1.05
Slovenia	0.14	0.73	7.42	0.17	0.43	0.32	0.29	0.07	0.22	0.37
Spain	2.20	1.60	1.37	2.39	1.27	1.25	0.96	0.70	4.64	1.64
Sweden	1.90	0.44	0.38	0.39	0.65	7.56	5.80	5.93	0.65	0.76
Australia	0.07	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.01	0.06	1.69	0.01	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.05
Brazil	0.28	0.02	0.03	1.08	0.03	0.20	0.12	0.06	0.11	0.13
Canada	0.68	0.22	0.06	0.10	0.09	0.18	0.07	0.20	0.22	0.12
Chile	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.01
China	5.17	3.81	4.68	5.65	5.73	5.87	5.44	2.39	3.53	4.08
Hong Kong	0.83	0.35	0.23	0.61	0.68	0.42	0.84	0.30	0.59	0.55
Iceland	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01
India	1.80	0.58	0.51	0.59	0.26	0.65	0.40	0.21	0.52	0.44
Iran	0.03	0.17	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01
Israel	0.80	0.13	0.09	4.85	0.09	0.07	0.07	0.05	0.18	0.09
Japan	1.98	0.32	0.17	1.96	0.79	0.40	0.74	0.32	0.79	1.02
Malaysia	0.34	0.19	0.08	0.15	0.23	0.11	0.07	0.07	0.18	0.34
Mexico	0.30	0.00	0.04	0.03	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.08	0.18	0.32
New Zealand	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01
Norway	0.18	0.04	0.12	0.67	0.09	1.29	0.67	0.46	0.10	0.14
Russian Federation	1.51	1.65	0.31	1.66	0.67	0.41	4.70	1.95	0.09	0.21
Saudi Arabia	0.61	0.02	0.02	0.09	0.00	0.01	0.30	0.01	0.05	0.01
Serbia	0.05	1.23	1.75	0.08	0.26	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.05	0.11
Singapore	1.75	0.16	0.03	0.06	0.27	0.11	0.05	0.09	0.44	0.34
South Africa	0.76	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.08	0.03	0.10	0.02	0.07	0.31
South Korea	0.90	0.45	1.39	11.33	1.37	0.91	0.41	0.26	0.37	0.47
Switzerland	1.86	1.19	0.97	1.00	0.93	0.88	0.62	0.56	1.81	2.37
Taiwan	0.44	0.36	0.19	0.21	0.26	0.32	0.51	0.21	0.21	0.38
Turkey	0.98	7.84	1.29	7.73	0.58	0.93	0.65	0.24	0.84	0.87
Ukraine	0.04	1.33	0.11	0.18	0.22	0.13	0.51	0.06	0.02	0.07
United Arab Emirates	1.43	0.39	0.06	0.78	0.05	0.04	0.07	0.02	0.12	0.09
United Kingdom	4.32	1.68	0.86	4.21	1.59	2.70	1.42	1.32	3.10	2.38
USA	9.31	0.80	0.50	0.86	1.16	1.50	1.08	0.92	2.30	2.41
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Single export weights	1.37	0.51	0.88	0.05	3.73	0.52	0.10	0.45	4.82	30.28
Source: OeNB/WIFO.

Table A2 continued: Competition matrix for manufactured goods exports  

	Destinations
Competing countries	Greece	Hungary	Ireland	Italy	Latvia	Lithuania	Luxem- bourg	Malta	Nether- lands	Poland
	Market shares in %, calculated for the period from 2016 to 2018
Belgium	2.44	2.54	1.23	2.24	1.81	3.29	14.47	1.03	6.74	2.48
Bulgaria	1.76	0.43	0.02	0.24	0.18	0.26	0.01	0.26	0.11	0.18
Croatia	0.08	0.27	0.02	0.14	0.08	0.12	0.23	0.12	0.05	0.06
Cyprus	0.36	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.35	0.01	0.00
Czechia	0.58	5.10	0.53	0.73	1.45	2.48	0.71	0.44	1.28	3.01
Denmark	0.29	0.54	0.39	0.16	1.20	1.61	0.18	0.32	0.68	0.55
Estonia	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.01	4.11	2.51	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.07
Finland	0.15	0.29	0.13	0.13	1.75	1.28	0.07	0.56	0.70	0.42
France	2.82	3.75	1.61	3.43	1.31	2.39	5.79	4.32	2.84	2.99
Germany	7.92	27.40	5.27	7.24	9.38	13.38	15.85	7.29	15.17	18.16
Greece	46.13	0.12	0.04	0.18	0.07	0.11	0.04	0.81	0.08	0.11
Hungary	0.59	12.14	0.15	0.49	0.98	0.93	0.33	0.14	0.73	1.36
Ireland	0.65	0.36	64.41	0.33	0.15	0.12	0.28	0.69	1.34	0.41
Italy	6.34	5.21	1.23	65.21	2.40	3.64	1.75	13.60	2.05	4.26
Latvia	0.02	0.05	0.01	0.02	32.48	5.89	0.04	0.09	0.04	0.13
Lithuania	0.04	0.19	0.05	0.04	8.24	21.73	0.04	0.05	0.11	0.39
Luxembourg	0.04	0.08	0.03	0.06	0.05	0.09	41.08	0.02	0.16	0.10
Malta	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	12.07	0.01	0.01
Netherlands	2.44	3.71	1.74	1.81	2.31	3.59	3.52	2.51	23.24	3.43
Poland	1.11	5.47	0.41	1.01	6.65	10.49	1.15	0.48	1.59	40.87
Portugal	0.21	0.29	0.21	0.20	0.15	0.27	0.26	0.26	0.37	0.18
Romania	0.79	2.93	0.06	0.79	0.10	0.33	0.07	0.10	0.29	0.66
Slovakia	0.40	3.90	0.10	0.52	1.03	0.76	0.34	0.15	0.44	1.84
Slovenia	0.16	0.78	0.03	0.29	0.25	0.33	0.08	0.18	0.12	0.31
Spain	2.59	1.77	0.96	2.00	0.70	1.10	0.96	1.65	1.32	1.58
Sweden	0.45	0.65	0.30	0.38	1.88	2.33	0.36	0.27	1.20	1.09
Australia	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.05	0.01	0.12	0.01
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.01	0.14	0.00	0.07	0.01	0.03	0.14	0.01	0.03	0.02
Brazil	0.03	0.16	0.13	0.14	0.04	0.04	0.07	0.02	0.37	0.05
Canada	0.04	0.06	0.19	0.13	2.14	0.20	0.28	2.97	0.30	0.12
Chile	0.10	0.01	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.12	0.00
China	8.19	6.43	1.87	3.28	6.31	6.42	3.09	17.66	13.86	5.73
Hong Kong	0.26	1.95	0.17	0.39	0.51	0.68	0.26	0.23	1.79	0.46
Iceland	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.27	0.00
India	0.55	0.43	0.30	0.52	0.58	0.35	0.04	1.51	0.68	0.41
Iran	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01
Israel	0.54	0.13	0.05	0.10	0.15	0.15	0.06	1.45	0.42	0.07
Japan	0.47	1.51	0.51	0.51	0.32	0.21	1.81	6.02	2.52	0.61
Malaysia	0.14	0.44	0.12	0.09	0.27	0.07	0.03	0.44	1.00	0.12
Mexico	0.02	0.21	0.15	0.11	0.02	0.00	0.09	0.00	0.30	0.06
New Zealand	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.00
Norway	0.06	0.08	0.23	0.05	0.22	0.52	0.10	0.41	0.64	0.25
Russian Federation	1.07	0.46	0.12	0.24	4.66	3.82	0.04	0.15	0.97	0.65
Saudi Arabia	0.24	0.00	0.01	0.08	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.28	0.12	0.11
Serbia	0.21	0.54	0.00	0.24	0.03	0.13	0.03	0.02	0.05	0.12
Singapore	0.05	0.29	0.18	0.07	0.11	0.04	0.16	0.87	1.47	0.09
South Africa	0.07	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.02	0.16	0.04	0.10	0.22	0.04
South Korea	2.88	1.47	0.39	0.42	0.37	1.28	0.07	8.68	0.75	1.10
Switzerland	1.26	1.01	0.67	1.37	0.86	0.55	1.33	0.91	1.24	0.74
Taiwan	0.23	0.55	0.16	0.24	0.63	0.50	0.37	0.30	1.08	0.28
Turkey	2.20	1.21	0.36	0.90	0.75	1.14	0.17	2.24	0.74	0.94
Ukraine	0.17	1.03	0.00	0.18	0.62	0.63	0.02	0.14	0.08	0.56
United Arab Emirates	0.14	0.04	0.03	0.10	0.15	0.11	0.11	0.22	0.34	0.05
United Kingdom	1.68	1.88	10.58	1.36	1.24	1.83	0.95	6.32	3.40	1.78
USA	0.97	1.75	4.73	1.56	1.20	2.01	3.08	1.20	6.40	0.92
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Single export weights	0.28	3.00	0.21	5.34	0.10	0.16	0.13	0.03	1.82	3.26
Source: OeNB/WIFO.

Table A2 continued: Competition matrix for manufactured goods exports  

	Destinations
Competing countries	Portugal	Romania	Slovakia	Slovenia	Spain	Sweden	Australia	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Brazil	Canada
	Market shares in %, calculated for the period from 2016 to 2018
Belgium	2.13	1.57	1.38	1.76	2.22	3.30	0.61	1.00	0.43	0.39
Bulgaria	0.07	1.55	0.22	0.35	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.74	0.00	0.01
Croatia	0.06	0.14	0.20	3.01	0.05	0.06	0.00	8.33	0.00	0.01
Cyprus	0.00	0.02	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00
Czechia	0.62	2.04	13.75	2.09	1.17	1.43	0.13	1.64	0.04	0.05
Denmark	0.15	0.16	0.26	0.22	0.29	3.34	0.22	0.16	0.05	0.07
Estonia	0.01	0.08	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.87	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01
Finland	0.15	0.14	0.12	0.20	0.20	2.09	0.17	0.05	0.05	0.07
France	4.89	3.67	3.73	2.65	6.85	2.51	0.76	1.18	0.66	0.47
Germany	9.92	13.20	16.82	14.17	9.56	13.22	3.30	11.06	1.36	1.78
Greece	0.11	0.62	0.05	0.13	0.12	0.05	0.02	0.35	0.00	0.01
Hungary	0.48	3.69	6.01	2.59	0.69	0.75	0.14	3.34	0.03	0.04
Ireland	0.45	0.29	0.09	0.18	0.60	0.34	0.37	0.20	0.04	0.19
Italy	4.39	6.64	3.86	9.97	4.92	2.19	1.21	8.86	0.52	0.60
Latvia	0.01	0.01	0.06	0.03	0.02	0.32	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.00
Lithuania	0.07	0.07	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.59	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.01
Luxembourg	0.06	0.05	0.06	0.10	0.07	0.10	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01
Malta	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Netherlands	2.65	1.99	1.74	2.17	2.56	3.54	0.72	1.48	0.29	0.33
Poland	0.88	2.96	5.53	1.98	1.15	2.78	0.18	2.46	0.05	0.19
Portugal	43.31	0.40	0.42	0.19	2.54	0.26	0.05	0.03	0.06	0.04
Romania	0.19	44.07	1.47	1.06	0.38	0.31	0.02	0.86	0.03	0.03
Slovakia	0.31	1.71	29.66	1.53	0.54	0.60	0.06	1.25	0.01	0.06
Slovenia	0.12	0.42	0.59	26.28	0.13	0.18	0.04	8.68	0.01	0.02
Spain	17.15	1.89	1.23	1.43	49.94	0.93	0.49	0.71	0.27	0.23
Sweden	0.38	0.28	0.41	0.44	0.42	46.38	0.52	0.25	0.12	0.19
Australia	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	54.85	0.00	0.02	0.06
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.00	0.07	0.09	1.22	0.02	0.02	0.00	29.60	0.00	0.00
Brazil	0.38	0.04	0.03	0.04	0.13	0.09	0.09	0.01	84.71	0.12
Canada	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.05	0.14	0.18	0.38	0.03	0.17	46.42
Chile	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.24	0.10
China	3.70	3.38	3.39	8.91	4.85	3.51	12.73	1.02	3.93	5.07
Hong Kong	0.37	0.40	0.35	0.23	0.42	0.44	1.41	0.22	0.21	0.38
Iceland	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01
India	0.66	0.29	0.18	0.67	0.72	0.35	0.73	0.18	0.39	0.33
Iran	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.00
Israel	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.82	0.18	0.07	0.16	0.02	0.13	0.11
Japan	0.46	0.34	0.25	0.33	0.65	0.65	3.81	0.04	0.46	1.36
Malaysia	0.08	0.10	0.10	1.03	0.10	0.13	1.13	0.01	0.10	0.12
Mexico	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.17	0.03	0.21	0.00	0.47	1.74
New Zealand	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.77	0.00	0.00	0.02
Norway	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.14	1.33	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.04
Russian Federation	0.09	0.42	0.39	0.13	0.10	0.21	0.03	0.42	0.27	0.05
Saudi Arabia	0.07	0.01	0.00	0.04	0.14	0.04	0.11	0.00	0.06	0.01
Serbia	0.02	0.49	0.39	1.28	0.04	0.07	0.00	9.55	0.00	0.00
Singapore	0.09	0.05	0.03	0.11	0.07	0.09	1.78	0.01	0.15	0.11
South Africa	0.06	0.03	0.00	0.07	0.17	0.06	0.23	0.01	0.04	0.03
South Korea	0.49	0.42	3.52	5.14	0.58	0.46	2.69	0.05	0.70	0.83
Switzerland	0.89	0.66	0.71	1.73	1.27	0.67	0.75	0.95	0.32	0.58
Taiwan	0.40	0.16	0.37	0.44	0.23	0.30	0.93	0.04	0.16	0.36
Turkey	0.89	2.76	0.54	3.32	1.32	0.64	0.15	4.19	0.05	0.15
Ukraine	0.08	0.49	0.38	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.01
United Arab Emirates	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.04	0.08	0.02	0.16	0.11	0.01	0.04
United Kingdom	1.69	1.29	0.90	0.88	2.26	2.79	1.59	0.37	0.33	0.91
USA	0.54	0.54	0.31	0.70	1.42	1.49	6.19	0.18	3.00	36.25
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Single export weights	0.28	1.70	2.00	1.53	1.88	1.20	0.82	0.27	0.54	0.89
Source: OeNB/WIFO.

Table A2 continued: Competition matrix for manufactured goods exports  

	Destinations
Competing countries	Chile	China	Hong Kong	Iceland	India	Iran	Israel	Japan	Malaysia	Mexico
	Market shares in %, calculated for the period from 2016 to 2018
Belgium	0.49	0.05	0.42	1.77	0.70	0.38	2.57	0.15	0.23	0.23
Bulgaria	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.01	0.01
Croatia	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00
Cyprus	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00
Czechia	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.99	0.05	0.05	1.08	0.03	0.08	0.14
Denmark	0.18	0.02	0.06	7.06	0.03	0.13	0.13	0.03	0.05	0.07
Estonia	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02
Finland	0.28	0.02	0.03	0.79	0.04	0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	0.06
France	1.11	0.15	1.07	3.53	0.42	0.93	1.57	0.26	0.77	0.67
Germany	2.99	0.76	1.23	11.57	0.93	2.36	5.05	0.96	2.20	2.52
Greece	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.02	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.02
Hungary	0.08	0.02	0.05	0.19	0.02	0.03	0.33	0.03	0.06	0.15
Ireland	0.10	0.03	0.11	0.56	0.03	0.10	0.79	0.14	0.08	0.28
Italy	1.20	0.11	1.17	2.11	0.30	1.58	2.71	0.27	0.52	0.81
Latvia	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
Lithuania	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.66	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00
Luxembourg	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.01	0.01
Malta	0.01	0.00	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Netherlands	0.62	0.07	0.26	9.66	0.14	0.60	2.31	0.15	0.36	0.25
Poland	0.15	0.02	0.03	2.33	0.04	0.08	0.43	0.02	0.05	0.11
Portugal	0.16	0.00	0.03	0.28	0.01	0.03	0.12	0.00	0.01	0.06
Romania	0.05	0.01	0.01	0.16	0.02	0.29	0.23	0.01	0.01	0.03
Slovakia	0.06	0.01	0.01	0.43	0.00	0.02	0.39	0.01	0.01	0.04
Slovenia	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.01	0.02
Spain	1.72	0.03	0.15	1.57	0.10	0.40	1.64	0.08	0.26	0.82
Sweden	0.35	0.05	0.08	5.61	0.08	0.33	0.30	0.09	0.13	0.12
Australia	0.11	0.03	0.23	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.08	0.08	0.59	0.02
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Brazil	3.17	0.03	0.04	0.02	0.05	0.13	0.16	0.05	0.05	0.65
Canada	0.43	0.04	0.15	0.64	0.12	0.02	0.33	0.09	0.15	0.74
Chile	52.87	0.07	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.10
China	16.17	91.90	49.52	2.29	5.23	13.60	9.36	5.65	15.67	6.52
Hong Kong	0.77	2.18	5.24	0.31	1.38	0.17	2.25	0.72	1.59	0.70
Iceland	0.00	0.00	0.00	27.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
India	0.86	0.06	2.42	0.18	83.62	1.09	2.25	0.12	1.24	0.64
Iran	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.13	61.38	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.01
Israel	0.14	0.03	0.78	0.06	0.17	0.00	40.21	0.04	0.08	0.07
Japan	1.67	0.98	4.53	1.37	0.69	0.58	2.11	85.05	4.72	1.94
Malaysia	0.17	0.17	2.23	0.03	0.35	0.13	0.00	0.45	47.19	0.35
Mexico	1.84	0.03	0.09	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.20	0.07	0.18	44.76
New Zealand	0.05	0.00	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.01
Norway	0.12	0.01	0.01	3.70	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.05	0.01
Russian Federation	0.04	0.04	0.11	0.23	0.34	0.63	0.95	0.08	0.10	0.24
Saudi Arabia	0.02	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.56	0.01
Serbia	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
Singapore	0.07	0.33	7.05	0.03	0.75	0.13	0.79	0.69	11.14	0.19
South Africa	0.05	0.01	0.16	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.25	0.14	0.12	0.02
South Korea	1.67	1.10	6.84	0.65	1.03	2.81	1.41	0.96	2.73	1.90
Switzerland	0.34	0.09	1.12	0.48	0.13	0.41	1.16	0.33	0.30	0.25
Taiwan	0.28	0.69	7.07	0.10	0.25	0.47	0.76	0.89	3.60	0.40
Turkey	0.32	0.01	0.10	1.38	0.04	2.54	3.46	0.01	0.08	0.09
Ukraine	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.01
United Arab Emirates	0.10	0.04	0.85	0.02	0.75	8.03	0.00	0.05	0.24	0.01
United Kingdom	0.72	0.11	1.47	8.47	0.35	0.18	1.49	0.31	0.64	0.29
USA	8.28	0.57	5.06	2.39	1.29	0.04	12.15	1.83	3.98	33.62
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Single export weights	0.13	2.75	0.38	0.02	0.60	0.22	0.26	0.97	0.42	0.90
Source: OeNB/WIFO.

Table A2 continued: Competition matrix for manufactured goods exports  

	Destinations
Competing countries	New Zealand	Norway	Russian Federation	Saudi Arabia	Serbia	Singapore	South Africa	South Korea	Switzer- land	Taiwan
	Market shares in %, calculated for the period from 2016 to 2018
Belgium	0.45	1.49	0.59	0.69	2.18	0.45	1.04	0.12	1.68	0.17
Bulgaria	0.01	0.03	0.09	0.02	1.71	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.06	0.01
Croatia	0.00	0.07	0.03	0.03	2.11	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.06	0.00
Cyprus	0.00	0.16	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00
Czechia	0.16	0.73	0.55	0.22	2.12	0.11	0.41	0.03	0.94	0.05
Denmark	0.18	4.24	0.10	0.11	0.59	0.13	0.19	0.04	0.24	0.04
Estonia	0.00	0.47	0.19	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.00
Finland	0.11	1.30	0.50	0.09	0.14	0.07	0.22	0.05	0.14	0.04
France	0.81	1.46	0.88	1.74	1.96	2.54	1.35	0.35	5.40	0.51
Germany	2.50	8.70	4.21	2.85	11.68	2.74	7.81	1.48	19.71	1.85
Greece	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.03	1.05	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	0.00
Hungary	0.12	0.16	0.25	0.04	4.80	0.07	0.17	0.04	0.34	0.03
Ireland	0.15	0.19	0.06	0.29	0.32	0.27	0.16	0.06	2.70	0.06
Italy	0.95	1.47	1.26	1.60	7.72	0.72	1.31	0.37	7.42	0.32
Latvia	0.01	0.23	0.11	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.00
Lithuania	0.02	0.67	0.57	0.00	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.05	0.00
Luxembourg	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	0.00
Malta	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00
Netherlands	0.75	3.02	0.74	0.84	1.80	0.88	1.15	0.43	1.84	0.84
Poland	0.26	2.31	1.02	0.20	3.24	0.13	0.42	0.04	0.71	0.03
Portugal	0.04	0.13	0.02	0.05	0.10	0.02	0.13	0.01	0.21	0.05
Romania	0.01	0.36	0.18	0.06	2.39	0.01	0.14	0.02	0.15	0.01
Slovakia	0.05	0.20	0.26	0.05	1.60	0.01	0.10	0.01	0.49	0.01
Slovenia	0.02	0.08	0.14	0.03	4.23	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.23	0.01
Spain	0.33	0.89	0.29	0.98	1.01	0.26	0.85	0.10	1.46	0.08
Sweden	0.27	11.89	0.30	0.31	0.50	0.27	0.54	0.11	0.40	0.10
Australia	8.65	0.04	0.01	0.20	0.01	0.43	0.21	0.10	0.04	0.22
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	1.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00
Brazil	0.06	0.08	0.06	0.00	0.03	0.24	0.66	0.06	0.05	0.04
Canada	0.44	0.35	0.06	0.46	0.03	0.29	0.19	0.08	0.35	0.11
Chile	0.04	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.06	0.15	0.02	0.17
China	8.91	2.32	6.50	8.02	2.43	14.22	10.97	7.62	1.28	9.07
Hong Kong	1.02	0.18	0.46	0.46	0.46	2.91	0.89	0.56	1.29	1.98
Iceland	0.00	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00
India	0.52	0.22	0.25	1.41	0.23	1.45	2.18	0.23	0.39	0.27
Iran	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.07
Israel	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.10	0.18	0.19	0.06	0.52	0.14
Japan	3.78	0.86	0.95	1.90	0.07	5.10	1.81	3.50	0.58	8.12
Malaysia	0.84	0.09	0.07	0.22	0.02	8.37	0.33	0.35	0.09	0.97
Mexico	0.13	0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.18	0.08	0.05	0.11	0.05
New Zealand	57.61	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.06	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01
Norway	0.09	44.23	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.17	0.03	0.06	0.10	0.01
Russian Federation	0.01	0.22	75.32	0.05	1.73	0.07	0.06	0.07	0.82	0.38
Saudi Arabia	0.20	0.02	0.00	59.74	0.00	1.13	0.34	0.06	0.03	0.15
Serbia	0.00	0.02	0.10	0.00	34.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.00
Singapore	1.76	0.52	0.09	0.26	0.02	36.42	0.25	1.16	0.71	3.27
South Africa	0.13	0.03	0.01	0.09	0.01	0.12	58.52	0.06	0.27	0.07
South Korea	1.49	3.47	0.97	2.17	0.50	2.94	0.69	78.27	0.19	2.67
Switzerland	0.35	0.60	0.33	0.83	1.08	1.50	0.48	0.24	39.40	0.38
Taiwan	0.79	0.16	0.16	0.45	0.13	5.56	0.46	1.02	0.19	63.17
Turkey	0.15	0.48	0.30	1.01	4.08	0.12	0.32	0.04	0.25	0.03
Ukraine	0.00	0.01	0.48	0.07	0.25	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.01
United Arab Emirates	0.13	0.06	0.12	4.80	0.10	0.48	0.44	0.04	1.38	0.09
United Kingdom	1.82	3.32	0.52	2.21	0.80	2.00	1.68	0.36	2.82	0.28
USA	3.74	2.25	0.69	5.26	0.38	7.15	2.93	2.50	4.64	4.05
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Single export weights	0.11	0.38	1.52	0.33	0.48	0.31	0.37	0.84	5.02	0.33
Source: OeNB/WIFO.

Table A2 continued: Competition matrix for manufactured goods exports  

	Destinations						Double export weights
Competing countries	Turkey	Ukraine	United Arab Emirates	United Kingdom	USA	Rest of the world
	Market shares in %, calculated for the period from 2016 to 2018
Belgium	1.10	1.05	1.71	3.79	0.34	1.26	2.56
Bulgaria	0.35	0.25	0.03	0.07	0.01	0.12	0.34
Croatia	0.02	0.06	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.09	0.46
Cyprus	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.06	0.02
Czechia	0.53	1.96	0.34	1.12	0.06	0.69	3.00
Denmark	0.13	0.36	0.14	0.60	0.07	1.09	0.64
Estonia	0.01	0.17	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.09
Finland	0.16	0.30	0.11	0.24	0.07	0.24	0.59
France	1.68	1.30	1.49	3.60	0.57	2.89	5.01
Germany	5.32	7.70	5.50	11.02	2.07	7.40	23.29
Greece	0.15	0.08	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.11	0.24
Hungary	0.47	2.66	0.08	0.47	0.06	0.43	1.53
Ireland	0.13	0.07	0.17	1.39	0.66	0.33	0.79
Italy	2.37	2.36	2.39	2.83	0.69	2.99	6.74
Latvia	0.01	0.15	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.09
Lithuania	0.01	0.52	0.02	0.11	0.01	0.12	0.15
Luxembourg	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.02	0.15
Malta	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02
Netherlands	1.17	1.25	0.97	3.84	0.30	1.47	3.22
Poland	0.71	6.55	0.22	1.48	0.09	0.61	3.41
Portugal	0.09	0.04	0.07	0.48	0.04	0.31	0.46
Romania	0.39	0.79	0.09	0.35	0.02	0.31	1.41
Slovakia	0.19	0.69	0.07	0.51	0.04	0.36	1.53
Slovenia	0.07	0.27	0.04	0.07	0.01	0.19	0.76
Spain	1.32	0.57	0.66	2.08	0.17	1.90	2.44
Sweden	0.27	0.63	0.23	0.69	0.16	0.42	1.23
Australia	0.03	0.01	0.26	0.21	0.09	0.41	0.52
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.05	0.15
Brazil	0.18	0.05	0.21	0.12	0.31	1.89	0.65
Canada	0.08	0.08	0.29	0.28	3.13	0.37	0.80
Chile	0.04	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.07	0.30	0.11
China	4.16	9.28	13.01	7.01	7.21	26.64	8.46
Hong Kong	0.24	0.39	2.94	0.81	0.74	2.56	0.82
Iceland	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.02
India	0.83	0.46	8.82	1.02	0.68	3.20	1.16
Iran	0.31	0.02	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.63	0.18
Israel	0.32	0.24	0.00	0.55	0.29	0.38	0.30
Japan	0.73	0.66	3.39	1.35	2.17	6.49	2.15
Malaysia	0.32	0.09	1.09	0.26	0.34	1.71	0.57
Mexico	0.02	0.01	0.10	0.16	4.84	0.87	0.96
New Zealand	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.07	0.08
Norway	0.05	0.06	0.09	0.27	0.03	0.14	0.31
Russian Federation	1.12	7.36	0.40	0.16	0.10	2.02	1.58
Saudi Arabia	0.45	0.07	2.98	0.07	0.03	0.96	0.30
Serbia	0.06	0.17	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.10	0.34
Singapore	0.11	0.02	1.38	0.38	0.41	3.59	0.68
South Africa	0.05	0.01	0.59	0.38	0.09	1.14	0.43
South Korea	1.41	0.46	2.12	0.91	1.12	6.51	1.79
Switzerland	0.42	0.50	1.34	1.42	0.60	1.19	3.31
Taiwan	0.32	0.21	0.51	0.47	0.61	2.01	0.71
Turkey	69.17	2.00	1.25	1.17	0.12	1.99	1.52
Ukraine	0.31	45.53	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.30	0.30
United Arab Emirates	0.39	0.17	34.28	0.41	0.10	2.89	0.48
United Kingdom	1.22	0.85	3.66	43.08	0.94	1.63	3.16
USA	0.95	1.48	5.93	4.36	70.50	6.48	7.99
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Single export weights	0.91	0.33	0.46	3.05	7.12	3.63	100.00
Source: OeNB/WIFO.

Table A3: Comparison of the weights for manufactured goods across different calculation periods  

	1998 to 2000				2013 to 2015
	Austrian exports (single weights)	Austrian exports (double weights)	Austrian imports	Total	Austrian exports (single weights)	Austrian exports (double weights)
	%
Belgium	1.82	2.77	2.21	2.48	1.47	2.53
Bulgaria	0.34	0.19	0.11	0.15	0.54	0.34
Croatia	0.98	0.51	0.34	0.42	0.97	0.47
Cyprus	0.05	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.10	0.02
Czechia	2.78	2.14	2.13	2.14	3.56	2.81
Denmark	0.86	0.80	0.64	0.72	0.58	0.66
Estonia	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.09	0.08
Finland	0.62	0.91	1.12	1.02	0.42	0.55
France	4.75	6.61	5.22	5.89	5.30	5.18
Germany	36.82	29.95	43.28	36.86	31.04	23.56
Greece	0.45	0.34	0.15	0.24	0.30	0.27
Hungary	4.93	2.50	3.02	2.77	3.03	1.57
Ireland	0.32	0.82	0.75	0.78	0.44	0.75
Italy	6.85	8.74	7.80	8.25	5.38	6.66
Latvia	0.06	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.13	0.08
Lithuania	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.05	0.14	0.16
Luxembourg	0.20	0.18	0.17	0.18	0.15	0.13
Malta	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.02
Netherlands	2.45	2.40	2.95	2.68	1.68	3.14
Poland	1.69	1.61	0.76	1.17	3.34	3.19
Portugal	0.49	0.58	0.56	0.57	0.26	0.41
Romania	0.68	0.50	0.42	0.46	1.60	1.27
Slovakia	1.11	0.78	1.07	0.93	2.01	1.52
Slovenia	1.68	0.93	1.00	0.97	1.49	0.78
Spain	3.06	3.15	1.41	2.25	1.84	2.44
Sweden	1.22	1.58	1.49	1.53	1.22	1.28
Australia	0.50	0.41	0.03	0.22	0.65	0.43
Bosnia and Herzegovina	–	–	–	–	0.27	0.15
Brazil	0.42	0.55	0.13	0.33	0.64	0.76
Canada	0.76	0.68	0.55	0.61	0.91	0.80
Chile	0.05	0.07	0.01	0.04	0.14	0.11
China	0.74	1.71	1.66	1.68	2.87	8.16
Hong Kong	0.57	0.88	0.34	0.60	0.48	0.81
Iceland	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
India	0.17	0.38	0.24	0.30	0.57	1.08
Iran	0.32	0.30	0.03	0.16	0.19	0.16
Israel	0.23	0.29	0.15	0.22	0.23	0.29
Japan	1.03	3.14	2.97	3.05	1.04	2.10
Malaysia	0.13	0.35	0.31	0.33	0.43	0.52
Mexico	0.23	0.41	0.14	0.27	0.60	0.77
New Zealand	0.07	0.05	0.01	0.03	0.12	0.08
Norway	0.47	0.44	0.15	0.29	0.42	0.36
Russian Federation	0.92	1.03	0.29	0.64	2.52	2.23
Saudi Arabia	0.27	0.17	0.01	0.09	0.62	0.41
Serbia	–	–	–	–	0.42	0.32
Singapore	0.28	0.54	0.20	0.37	0.36	0.66
South Africa	0.38	0.41	0.07	0.23	0.44	0.44
South Korea	0.34	0.96	0.51	0.73	0.70	1.66
Switzerland	6.24	3.68	3.39	3.53	5.33	3.61
Taiwan	0.37	0.90	0.94	0.92	0.34	0.67
Thailand	0.20	0.31	0.26	0.28	0.25	0.54
Turkey	0.78	0.94	0.54	0.73	1.07	1.46
Ukraine	0.29	0.32	0.12	0.22	0.42	0.35
United Arab Emirates	0.22	0.10	0.01	0.05	0.62	0.40
United Kingdom	4.71	5.47	3.37	4.38	3.39	3.29
USA	4.93	7.32	6.86	7.08	6.85	7.49
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Source: OeNB/WIFO.
Note: Thailand is no longer included in the 2016 to 2018 matrix, as Austria’s export of goods to Thailand averaged less than 2% between 2016 and 2018.

Table A3 continued: Comparison of the weights for manufactured goods across different calculation periods  

	2013 to 2015		2016 to 2018
	Austrian imports	Total	Austrian exports (single weights)	Austrian exports (double weights)	Austrian imports	Total
	%
Belgium	1.72	2.14	1.42	2.56	1.48	2.03
Bulgaria	0.35	0.35	0.53	0.34	0.38	0.36
Croatia	0.45	0.46	0.91	0.46	0.45	0.45
Cyprus	0.03	0.03	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.01
Czechia	3.68	3.22	3.87	3.00	4.07	3.52
Denmark	0.43	0.55	0.54	0.64	0.45	0.55
Estonia	0.03	0.05	0.10	0.09	0.03	0.06
Finland	0.40	0.48	0.47	0.59	0.37	0.48
France	3.13	4.21	5.00	5.01	2.98	4.02
Germany	39.34	31.07	31.42	23.29	37.84	30.41
Greece	0.10	0.19	0.29	0.24	0.11	0.18
Hungary	2.51	2.02	3.11	1.53	2.39	1.95
Ireland	0.63	0.69	0.22	0.79	0.40	0.60
Italy	6.32	6.50	5.54	6.74	6.25	6.50
Latvia	0.02	0.05	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.06
Lithuania	0.06	0.11	0.17	0.15	0.09	0.12
Luxembourg	0.23	0.18	0.13	0.15	0.25	0.20
Malta	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.02
Netherlands	2.61	2.89	1.88	3.22	2.62	2.93
Poland	1.96	2.61	3.39	3.41	2.48	2.96
Portugal	0.45	0.43	0.29	0.46	0.49	0.47
Romania	0.97	1.13	1.77	1.41	0.97	1.19
Slovakia	1.81	1.66	2.08	1.53	2.04	1.78
Slovenia	1.14	0.95	1.59	0.76	1.21	0.98
Spain	1.80	2.13	1.95	2.44	1.71	2.08
Sweden	1.11	1.20	1.25	1.23	1.03	1.13
Australia	0.04	0.24	0.85	0.52	0.04	0.29
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.35	0.25	0.28	0.15	0.42	0.28
Brazil	0.11	0.45	0.56	0.65	0.13	0.40
Canada	0.33	0.58	0.93	0.80	0.25	0.53
Chile	0.04	0.08	0.14	0.11	0.06	0.09
China	7.16	7.68	2.85	8.46	7.15	7.82
Hong Kong	0.08	0.46	0.40	0.82	0.14	0.49
Iceland	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.05	0.03
India	0.58	0.84	0.63	1.16	0.67	0.92
Iran	0.01	0.09	0.23	0.18	0.01	0.09
Israel	0.14	0.22	0.27	0.30	0.13	0.22
Japan	1.73	1.92	1.01	2.15	1.79	1.97
Malaysia	0.31	0.42	0.44	0.57	0.31	0.44
Mexico	0.21	0.51	0.93	0.96	0.27	0.62
New Zealand	0.02	0.06	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.05
Norway	0.16	0.27	0.40	0.31	0.19	0.25
Russian Federation	0.32	1.32	1.58	1.58	0.30	0.95
Saudi Arabia	0.03	0.23	0.34	0.30	0.02	0.16
Serbia	0.24	0.28	0.49	0.34	0.32	0.33
Singapore	0.11	0.39	0.32	0.68	0.13	0.41
South Africa	0.08	0.27	0.38	0.43	0.11	0.27
South Korea	0.75	1.23	0.87	1.79	0.69	1.25
Switzerland	4.80	4.18	5.21	3.31	4.72	4.00
Taiwan	0.55	0.61	0.35	0.71	0.58	0.65
Thailand	0.46	0.50	-	-	-	-
Turkey	1.06	1.27	0.95	1.52	1.10	1.31
Ukraine	0.17	0.26	0.34	0.30	0.18	0.24
United Arab Emirates	0.16	0.29	0.48	0.48	0.11	0.30
United Kingdom	1.95	2.65	3.16	3.16	2.05	2.61
USA	6.76	7.14	7.39	7.99	7.92	7.96
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Source: OeNB/WIFO.
Note: Thailand is no longer included in the 2016 to 2018 matrix, as Austria’s export of goods to Thailand averaged less than 2% between 2016 and 2018.

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