Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13

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• Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13 (PDF, 2.9 MB) December 2013.

Studies and Analyses

• Call for Applications: Visiting Research Program (PDF, 1.2 MB) Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13 en Dec 31, 2013, 12:00:00 AM

• Developments in Selected CESEE Countries: Economic Activity Finally Starting to Recover (PDF, 1.1 MB) Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13 en Dec 31, 2013, 12:00:00 AM

• Outlook for Selected CESEE Countries: Recovery to Gain Traction Gradually – Downside Risks Still Prevail (PDF, 1.7 MB) Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13 en Dec 31, 2013, 12:00:00 AM

• Economic Spillovers from the Euro Area to the CESEE Region via the Financial Channel: A GVAR Approach (PDF, 953 kB) Backé, Feldkircher, Slacík. Backé,Feldkircher, Slačík – Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13 In this paper we examine the spillovers of a shock to real output in the euro area to Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) and its subregions Central Europe, Southeastern Europe, Russia, and the other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). To this effect, we apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model and go beyond existing work by examining the relative importance of the financial channel compared with the trade channel. Moreover, we assume that shocks spill over from the euro area to the CESEE region via the financial channel whereas financial spillovers within CESEE are negligible (except for spillovers between Russia and the other CESEE countries, which we do capture). Our results are as follows: We find spillovers transmitted via the trade channel to be larger than spillovers via the financial channel for Southeastern Europe, but smaller for Russia and the other CIS countries. For Central Europe, the two channels have a broadly similar impact. When we assess the relative importance of the two channels based on how well they explain historical movements in the data we see that spillovers via the two channels have indeed been of equal importance for Central Europe. However, the financial channel has traditionally dominated the trade channel in Southeastern Europe, whereas the trade channel has traditionally played a stronger role for the CIS region. Overall spillovers reflecting both transmission channels are comparatively more moderate for Central Europe and Russia, while they are a bit larger for Southeastern Europe and considerably higher for the CIS region excluding Russia: The long-run effect of a +1% euro area output shock ranges from 0.3% in Central Europe and Russia to 0.7% in the other CIS countries. en Financial shocks, international shock transmission, GVAR, CESEE C32, F44, E32, O54 Nov 30, 2013, 12:00:00 AM

• Households’ Expectations and Macroeconomic Outcomes – Evidence from the Euro Survey (PDF, 2 MB) Beckmann, Moder. Beckmann, Moder – Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13 en Expectations, survey data, Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe D14, G01, D12, E21 Jan 30, 2014, 12:00:00 AM

• Oil Prices, Excess Uncertainty and Trend Growth (PDF, 2 MB) Rautava. Rautava – Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13 en Russian GDP, oil prices, trend growth, uncertainty, SVEC, forecasting C32, E17, O13, P28, Q43 Nov 30, 2013, 12:00:00 AM

• 74th East Jour Fixe: Latvia Joining the Euro Area (PDF, 408 kB) Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13 en Dec 31, 2013, 12:00:00 AM

• Seminar on the IMF’s Regional Economic Issues: “Faster, Higher, Stronger – Raising the Growth Potential of CESEE” (PDF, 1.4 MB) Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13 en Dec 31, 2013, 12:00:00 AM

• 18th Global Economy Lecture: Rachel Griffith Multinational Firms, Intellectual Property and Taxation (PDF, 1.6 MB) Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13 en Dec 31, 2013, 12:00:00 AM

• Statistical Annex (PDF, 945 kB) Focus on European Economic Integration Q4/13 en Dec 31, 2013, 12:00:00 AM

• Notes (PDF, 497 kB) en Dec 31, 2013, 12:00:00 AM