Presentation of the World Bank Global Economic Prospects report

Prospects for the Global Economy

Abstract and speaker biography
Global growth is expected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The United States, the euro area, and China are all undergoing a period of pronounced weakness, and the resulting spillovers are exacerbating other headwinds faced by emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The combination of slow growth, tightening financial conditions, and heavy indebtedness is likely to weaken investment and raise corporate defaults in many countries. Further negative shocks – such as higher inflation, even tighter policy, financial stress, deeper weakness in major economies, or rising geopolitical tensions – could push the global economy into recession.

Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge is Manager of the Prospects Group in the Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Practice Group at the World Bank. Prior to joining the World Bank, Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge worked in the Office of the Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development on regional surveillance, forecasting, and financial sector policy issues. She was previously at the International Monetary Fund, covering a range of Asian, European and Central Asian economies. Franziska Ohnsorge holds a Ph.D. from the University of Toronto.

Valerie Mercer-Blackman is a Lead Economist in the Prospects Group of the Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions Vice Presidency. Her recent published research focuses on diversification, trade, FDI, and productivity in services and global value chains. Her past analytical work includes growth drivers, investment and fiscal issues in developing countries, particularly commodity exporters. Previously she worked at the Asian Development Bank; the Inter-American Development Bank and the International Monetary Fund. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania and a Bachelor of Arts from Yale University.

Patrick Kirby is a senior economist in the World Bank’s Prospects Group. He is one of the lead authors of the flagship Global Economic Prospects report, which presents the institution’s view on the global economy and associated policy challenges for developing countries. He also coordinates the World Bank’s Global Monthly report, which monitors major macroeconomic, financial, and commodity market developments, and routinely prepares briefings on the global economy for senior management. Prior to joining the World Bank, Mr. Kirby was Principal Economist at the Bank of Canada’s International Projection Division, where he contributed to the Monetary Policy Report and the Bank’s global macroeconomic model.

Julia Wörz is Head of the Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe Section at the Economics Analysis and Research Department since 2015 and one of four Diversity Officers of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB). She is also lecturer at the University of Innsbruck. Prior to joining the OeNB, she had been staff economist at The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). Julia Wörz holds a doctoral degree in economics from the University of Vienna and received the venia docendi from the University of Innsbruck in 2012. Her main research interests are European economic integration, competitiveness, globalization and global value chains and macro-economic forecasting.

Speakers
Franziska Ohnsorge, Manager, Prospects Group, The World Bank
Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Lead Economist, Prospects Group, The World Bank
Patrick Kirby, Senior Economist, Prospects Group, The World Bank

Moderator
Julia Wörz, Head of Section, CESEE Analysis, Oesterreichische Nationalbank

Date
Tuesday, January 17, 2023, 2:30 p.m. (CET)

Venue
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna
and
Online via Webex