Monetary Policy and the Economy Q4/15

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• Monetary Policy and the Economy Q4/15 (PDF, 1.1 MB) December 2015.

Studies and Analyses

• Call for applications: Visiting Research Program (PDF, 56 kB) Monetary Policy and the Economy Q4/15 de Dec 31, 2015, 12:00:00 AM

• Austrian economy to grow at same pace as euro area economy in 2016 and 2017 (PDF, 432 kB) Fenz, Schneider. Fenz, Schneider – Monetary Policy and the Economy Q4/15 de Dec 31, 2015, 12:00:00 AM

• Interest rate perceptions and expectations when interest rates are low – survey evidence on Austrian households (PDF, 411 kB) Beer, Gnan, Ritzberger-Grünwald. Beer, Gnan, Ritzberger-Grünwald – Monetary Policy and the Economy Q4/15 Are Austrians fully aware of the currently prevailing ultra-low interest rate environment? Do
  they expect these low interest rates to persist for a protracted period? To answer these questions,
  we conducted a survey on the interest rate perceptions and expectations of Austrian
  households and present the survey evidence in this study. We find that people are largely
  aware that interest rates are extremely low and that they expect rates to stay low for some
  time. But we also find that the knowledge of interest rates is limited, as a high fraction of respondents
  does not know the levels of various types of interest rates and as people tend to
  overestimate interest rates both on savings accounts and mortgage loans. Likewise, quite a
  large fraction of survey participants has not formed any expectations about how high or low
  interest rates will be in 2020. Whereas awareness of interest rate developments is correlated
  with socioeconomic factors and the personal relevance of information, these factors appear to
  only weakly affect perceptions and expectations of the level of interest rates. Our findings
  suggest that in modeling the monetary policy transmission mechanism, one cannot simply
  take for granted that people are well-informed about actual interest rates. One needs to take
  into account perception limitations and biases. People’s limited knowledge of interest rates
  may be seen as yet another argument for central banks to pursue an active communication
  policy and financial literacy activities. de D12, D14 Dec 31, 2015, 12:00:00 AM

• Financing the Austrian economy – a bird’s eye view based on the financial accounts from 1995 to 2014 and a look at the road ahead (PDF, 417 kB) Andreasch, Fessler, Schürz. Andreasch, Fessler, Schürz – Monetary Policy and the Economy Q4/15 As a well functioning financing system is essential for an economy, the EU has launched a
  Capital Markets Union initiative to ensure stronger integration of European capital markets
  and to reduce the dependence of enterprises on banks. Especially since the beginning of the
  financial and economic crisis, much discussion has centered on ways to foster financing channels
  aside from classical bank lending. A precondition for boosting alternative sources of
  finance is to check the absolute values and the sources available for financing. We find that
  while financing through classical bank lending has lost its overwhelming importance in the
  past 20 years, it remains the major financing channel. There is still potential for the household
  sector’s role in direct business financing to increase, as holdings in savings accounts and real
  estate of private foundations are comparatively large. Unlocking 1% of sight and savings
  accounts of the household sector would imply an increase of 2.8% (direct business participations),
  3.3% (other stocks) and 3.2% (listed stocks) in direct business financing. New SME
  bond markets could be another investment channel through which to allocate unlocked capital.
  Improving debt securitization might help increase credit supply. de Capital Markets Union, banking, securitization, SME bonds E50, G10, G14, G23 Dec 31, 2015, 12:00:00 AM

• The central bank balance sheet in the (very) long run – how to construct it, how to read it, what to learn from it (PDF, 118 kB) Jobst, Scheiber. Jobst, Scheiber – Monetary Policy and the Economy Q4/15 de Dec 31, 2015, 12:00:00 AM