OeNB Freitagsseminar with Philipp Heimberger

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The overstated effects of conventional monetary policy on output and prices

OeNB Freitagsseminar with Philipp Heimberger, WIIW.

We build a novel dataset of output and price effects of conventional monetary policy containing 146,463 point estimates and confidence bounds from 4,871 impulse-response functions in 409 primary studies. Simple average responses suggest that interest rate hikes substantially dampen output and prices. However, we find robust evidence for p-hacking and publication bias. Bias corrections reduce the effect sizes by more than half on average. In response to a 100bp rate hike, output and prices fall by 0.25% and 0.15% respectively at the peak. Shock identification choices and publication characteristics correlate with effect sizes but are quantitatively less important than publication bias.

Date
Friday, 11 April 2025 | Start: 11:00 AM | End: 12:30 PM                      

Venue
The event is planned both, online via Webex and onsite at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Veranstaltungssaal, Ground Floor.

Please register by 9 April 2025, at the latest.

  • Contact

    • Event Management
      Phone: +43 (1) 404 20-6920