June 2020 Global Economic Prospects report

Speakers:
Franziska Ohnsorge, Manager of the Development Prospects Group in the Development Economics vice presidency of the World Bank
Collette Wheeler, Economist, The World Bank
Justin-Damien Guenette, Senior Economist, The World Bank

Moderators:
Julia Wörz, Head of Unit, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Martin Feldkircher, Expert, Oesterreichische Nationalbank

On June 18, 2020, Franziska Ohnsorge presented the World Bank’s recently published global outlook with a focus on the regional implications of the pandemic and recessions in Emerging Europe. The projections suggest that the COVID-19 global recession will be the deepest since the end of World War II, with the largest fraction of economies experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870. Growth forecasts for all regions have been severely downgraded, but Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and Europe and Central Asia (ECA) will experience the most severe revisions due to their exposure to global spillovers. 

In her presentation, Franziska Ohnsorge put a spotlight on the issues of informality and global value chain integration: COVID-19 will take an especially heavy humanitarian and economic toll on emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) with large informal sectors. Global value chains (GVCs) can amplify the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on trade, production, and financial markets.