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Forecasts of key economic indicators for Austria
OeNB
WIFO
IHS
OECD
IMF
European commission
June 2024 / September 2024
October 2024
October 2024
May 2024
October 2024
November 2024
2024
2025
2026
2024
2025
2024
2025
2024
2025
2024
2025
2024
2025
2026
Key results
Annual change in %
Real GDP
4
-0.7
1.0
1.5
-0.6
1.0
-0.6
0.8
0.2
1.5
-0.6
1.1
-0.6
1.0
1.4
Real private consumption
1.5
2.2
1.6
0.1
1.2
0.4
1.3
0.9
1.9
x
x
0.1
1.0
1.2
Real government consumption
-0.1
1.0
1.1
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.8
x
x
0.4
0.5
0.2
Real gross fixed capital formation
-1.9
3.0
2.7
-2.8
0.2
-2.9
0.0
-0.4
1.2
x
x
-3.2
1.2
2.1
Real exports
1.5
2.6
2.9
-2.3
2.4
-3.4
2.2
2.6
2.7
-1.0
3.4
-2.0
2.2
2.7
Real imports
1.5
3.2
3.3
-1.9
2.2
-3.6
2.4
3.5
2.8
-0.6
3.6
-2.4
2.2
2.3
Labour productivity
1
-0.1
0.8
0.6
0.3
0.6
-0.8
0.3
0.3
1.3
x
x
-0.8
0.4
0.8
GDP deflator
5.5
3.0
2.5
4.3
2.1
4.0
2.4
4.3
2.8
3.3
2.5
4.2
2.3
1.9
CPI
x
x
x
3.1
2.2
3.0
2.4
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
HICP
4
2.9
2.3
2.2
3.1
2.2
3.0
2.4
3.7
2.9
3.0
2.5
2.9
2.1
1.7
Unit labor costs
7.8
3.3
2.2
8.6
3.1
8.8
3.5
6.7
2.5
x
x
8.2
2.7
2.0
Payroll employment
2
0.4
1.0
0.9
0.2
0.7
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.6
in % of labour force, Eurostat definition
Unemployment rate
5.3
5.1
5.0
5.2
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.5
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.3
5.3
5.0
% of nominal GDP
Current account
2.8
2.9
2.9
1.6
1.7
x
x
2.3
2.1
2.6
2.4
1.7
1.5
1.5
General government
surplus/deficit
-3.1
-3.3
-3.0
-3.7
-4.0
-3.5
-3.4
-2.8
-2.7
-3.4
-3.3
-3.6
-3.7
-3.5
General government debt
77.3
77.6
78.2
80.1
82.4
x
x
77.7
78.1
78.7
79.6
79.5
80.8
81.8
Conditioning assumptions
Oil price in USD/barrel
83.8
78.0
74.5
80.0
72.0
80.6
72.5
84.6
85.0
81.3
72.8
80.7
73.1
71.5
Short-term interest rate in %
3.6
2.8
2.5
3.6
2.9
3.6
2.5
3.7
2.8
3.5
2.8
3.5
2.1
2.0
USD/EUR
1.08
1.08
1.08
1.11
1.11
1.09
1.10
1.08
1.08
1.09
1.10
1.09
1.08
1.08
Annual change in %
Euroarea: Real GDP
0.9
1.4
1.6
0.8
1.4
0.7
1.3
0.7
1.5
0.8
1.2
0.8
1.3
1.6
USA: Real GDP
2.5
1.8
1.8
2.5
1.8
2.6
1.7
2.6
1.8
2.8
2.2
2.7
2.1
2.2
World: Real GDP
3.0
3.0
3.0
x
x
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
World trade
3
2.1
3.3
3.2
x
x
1.3
2.5
2.3
3.3
3.1
3.4
2.9
3.1
3.3
Source:
OeNB
,
WIFO
,
IHS
.
1
OeNB and WIFO: hourly productivity of labour; IHS: labour productivity per employee.
2
WIFO and IHS: Employment adjusted for persons on parental leave, in compulsory military training or undergoing training under a program of the Public Employment Service.
3
IHS: goods following CPB.
4
OeNB: Interim economic outlook, September 2024 (only real GDP and HICP).
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Last update on 18.11.2024 00:00
