Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bernhard Hirsch Author-Name-First: Bernhard Author-Name-Last: Hirsch Author-Name: Aleksandra Riedl Author-Name-First: Aleksandra Author-Name-Last: Riedl Author-Email: aleksandra.riedl@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division Author-Name: Stefan Trappl Author-Name-First: Stefan Author-Name-Last: Trappl Author-Email: stefan.trappl@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank Title: Firm characteristics and bank loan distribution: Who borrows in Austria? Abstract: Aggregate data highlight the significant role of bank loans in financing Austrian nonfinancial companies, with bank lending playing a more prominent role than in other euro area countries. However, until now, there has been no detailed analysis of the prevalence of bank loans at the firm level or on how borrowers differ from companies without bank loans. Utilizing the OeNB’s novel Integrated Firm-level Database (IFLD), this study provides the first analysis of the allocation of bank loans among Austrian nonfinancial companies, allowing us to examine the characteristics of bank-financed firms. Our findings reveal that approximately one-third of Austrian firms have loans from Austrian banks, with the prevalence of bank loans positively associated with firm size and tangible assets but negatively related to profitability. Furthermore, the distribution of bank loans among borrowers shows a high concentration among a small number of large firms. Despite this fact, the share of loans in total liabilities remains generally stable across size classes, ranging from 50% to 60%, except among the largest firms, which tend to rely more heavily on alternative financing sources, such as bonds. These insights lay the groundwork for understanding the reliance of Austrian firms on bank debt, offering valuable insights for monetary and macroprudential policy. Classification-JEL: G21, G32, E44, D22, L25 Keywords: bank loan distribution, nonfinancial companies, firm size and financing, Austria Pages: 23 Year: 2025 Issue: Q1/25-1 File-URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:f2b3f0e4-0314-4775-94fd-21ce4e1222c8/oenb-bulletin-q1-25-firm-characteristics-and-bank-loan-distribution.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 6142 kb Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2025:i:Q1/25-1:b:1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Clara De Luigi Author-Name-First: Clara Author-Name-Last: De Luigi Author-Email: clara.deluigi@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division Author-Name: Markus Eller Author-Name-First: Markus Author-Name-Last: Eller Author-Email: markus.eller@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division Author-Name: Anna Stelzer Author-Name-First: Anna Author-Name-Last: Stelzer Author-Email: anna.stelzer@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank Title: Conditional dynamics of monetary policy shocks: the mitigating role of macroprudential policy in CESEE Abstract: This study examines the economic effects of monetary policy (short-term interest rate shocks) and its interaction with macroprudential policy in 11 EU member states of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) over the period from 2000 to 2019. Employing a smooth transition vector autoregressive model, we assess how the impacts of interest rate shocks vary with the intensity of macroprudential policies and across different exchange rate regimes. We find that in countries with flexible exchange rates, monetary policy tightening tends to persist longer and is often offset by easing macroprudential measures, particularly when these policies are already stringent. This pattern is less evident in countries with fixed exchange rates, where interest rate shocks do not always represent independent monetary policy actions. Overall, muted macrofinancial responses across the sample suggest that macroprudential measures may counterbalance the effect of monetary policy (interest rate) shocks and that traditional monetary tools have been less effective in the latter half of our sample period. These results highlight the importance of incorporating macroprudential indicators into monetary policy analysis and contribute to discussions on policy coordination, offering insights to help optimize policy mixes to enhance economic resilience. Classification-JEL: C32, E52, E61, G28 Keywords: monetary policy, macroprudential policy, smooth transition VAR, CESEE Pages: 30 Year: 2025 Issue: Q1/25-2 File-URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:c890dbe9-54bd-4c7a-8044-94211903f120/oenb-bulletin-q1-25-2-conditional-dynamics-of-monetary-policy-shocks.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 6788 kb Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2025:i:Q1/25-2:b:1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nico Petz Author-Name-First: Nico Author-Name-Last: Petz Author-Email: nico.petz@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank Author-Name: Thomas Scheiber Author-Name-First: Thomas Author-Name-Last: Scheiber Author-Email: thomas.scheiber@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division Author-Workplace-Homepage: http://www.oenb.at Author-Workplace-Phone: +43-1-40420-5247 Author-Workplace-Fax: +43-1-40420-5299 Author-Name: Julia Wörz Author-Name-First: Julia Author-Name-Last: Wörz Author-Email: Julia.Woerz@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Foreign Research Division, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Author-Workplace-Homepage: http://www.oenb.at Title: How do euro deposits in CESEE react to exchange rate shocks? Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the effects of unanticipated exchange rate movements on euro deposits in selected Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies that are characterized by considerable deposit euroization and flexible exchange rate regimes. In doing so, we examine household deposits and deposits of nonfinancial corporations (NFCs) separately. Our empirical approach involves a two-step process. First, we estimate country-specific vector autoregressive (VAR) models, identify structural shocks using sign restrictions and then compute impulse response functions to an exogenous exchange rate shock. We find that both households’ and NFCs’ euro deposits decrease in response to an exogenous domestic currency appreciation, with the effect being more pronounced on NFCs. Second, we use country-specific time-varying parameter regressions to estimate the time-varying sensitivity of euro deposits to the identified exchange rate shocks. Results vary significantly across countries, sectors and time periods. In general, our findings indicate that the euro deposits of NFCs are more sensitive to exchange rate shocks than those of households. Moreover, the sensitivity of NFC deposits exhibits greater time variation, suggesting that NFCs are more responsive to changing economic conditions than households. Classification-JEL: C32, E41, F31, F41 Keywords: deposit euroization, exchange rate shocks, vector autoregression, time-varying parameter regression, Bayesian estimation Pages: 24 Year: 2025 Issue: Q1/25-3 File-URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:56e62a26-5ee0-49ca-a231-7c6e8463b36d/oenb-bulletin-q1-25-3-how-do-euro-deposits-in-cesee-react-to-exchange-rate-shocks.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 6617 kb Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2025:i:Q1/25-3:b:1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lukas Reiss Author-Name-First: Lukas Author-Name-Last: Reiss Author-Email: lukas.reiss@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division Author-Name: Martin Schneider Author-Name-First: Martin Author-Name-Last: Schneider Author-Email: martin.schneider@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Divison Author-Workplace-Homepage: http://www.oenb.at Author-Workplace-Phone: +43-1-40420-7436 Title: Recent inflation developments in Austria – an analysis based on different decomposition frameworks Abstract: In this paper we show that decomposing national accounts deflators such as the GDP deflator as a proxy for consumer price inflation can lead to misleading results. We compare the decomposition of the value-added deflator, the GDP deflator and the total supply deflator with a HICP decomposition proposed by Schneider (2024). We discuss the differences between these concepts in detail. We find that imports and wages account for the bulk of the differences. Most importantly, the surge in import prices in late 2021 pushed up HICP inflation but had no direct impact on the GDP deflator. Furthermore, we find that wage developments have a much higher impact on the GDP deflator than the HICP. In both 2023 and 2024, the contribution of wages to the GDP deflator was higher than for the HICP even though the latter index increased stronger in both years. We also look at the role of profits. While they were soaring in 2022 and contributed somewhat to inflation, they cratered in 2023 and particularly in 2024. Classification-JEL: E31, D33 Keywords: inflation, profit share Pages: 15 Year: 2025 Issue: Q4/24-2 File-URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:aa722ccb-2f76-4283-be48-ea3f8cd4acdf/oenb-bulletin-q4-24-2-recent-inflation-developments-in-austria.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 6647 kb Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2025:i:Q4/24-2:b:1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Friedrich Fritzer Author-Name-First: Friedrich Author-Name-Last: Fritzer Author-Email: friedrich.fritzer@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division Author-Workplace-Homepage: http://www.oenb.at Author-Workplace-Phone: +43-1-40420-7417 Title: The instability of leading indicators in forecasting Austrian inflation: lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis Abstract: This analysis tests 25 macroeconomic indicators for their ability to predict Austrian HICP inflation and evaluates three methods of combining these indicators into a composite forecast. The key findings are:
First, for the evaluation period from early 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2023, competitors’ import prices, oil prices and domestic output prices for consumer goods are found to be the best individual leading indicators across various forecasting horizons (one, four and eight quarters ahead).
Second, indicator performance varies over time. The forecasting performance of the output gap, for instance, declined considerably during the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis, while that of other indicators like oil prices and competitors’ import prices improved.
Third, for the period before 2020, composite indicators produced better forecasts than individual indicators over the entire forecasting horizon. This no longer holds when we include the pandemic and the energy crisis in the evaluation period. Then, two of the top three individual indicators, namely competitors’ import prices and domestic output prices for consumer goods, outperform combined indicators over the medium- and longer-term horizon (four and eight quarters ahead).
Fourth, both individual and composite indicators outperformed autoregressive forecasts, especially in medium- and long-term predictions. Classification-JEL: C53, E37, C50 Keywords: macroeconomic forecasting, inflation, leading indicators, forecast combination Pages: 18 Year: 2024 Issue: Q4/24-1 File-URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:db587346-7644-48dd-acc3-29785f00d997/oenb-bulletin-q4-24-1-leading-indicator-performance.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 5887 kb Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2024:i:Q4/24-1:b:1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jonathan Fitter Author-Name-First: Jonathan Author-Name-Last: Fitter Author-Email: jonathan.fitter@wu.ac.at Author-Workplace-Name: Vienna University of Economics and Business Author-Name: Anna Katharina Raggl Author-Name-First: Anna Katharina Author-Name-Last: Raggl Author-Email: anna.raggl@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division Author-Name: Paul Ramskogler Author-Name-First: Paul Author-Name-Last: Ramskogler Author-Email: paul.ramskogler@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division Title: The (de)globalization of migration: has the polycrisis period changed the patterns of global migration? Abstract: Migration is a hotly discussed issue, and while the magnitude of migration is a frequent topic of debate, there is less discussion about its patterns (i.e. the diversity of migration). Yet, there is accumulating evidence that higher cultural heterogeneity among immigrants – a result of more globalized migrants – has positive impacts on productivity growth and innovation in destination countries and thus, ultimately, affects monetary policy. But is migration really becoming more globalized (i.e. more heterogenous), or is there evidence for recent (de)globalization trends, often attributed to flows of goods and capital? We address this question by composing an index of the globalization of migration that comprises three dimensions of global migration, following Czaika and de Haas (2015): the intensity – or relative magnitude – of migration, its diversity with respect to origin and destination countries, and the average distance of migration routes. These dimensions are combined to obtain an index of migration globalization that allows us to assess not only the degree of migration globalization, but also each country’s integration in global migration processes. Using migration flow estimates for 1990–2020, we find that migration continued to become more globalized in the past three decades, but this upward trend started to flatten out after the period 2005–10. The intensity of global migration flows did not increase between 1990 and 2020. The spread of global emigrants across destination countries widened in these three decades, while the diversity of global immigrants with respect to their home countries changed little and remained at a high level. This constitutes a change in the trend seen in earlier decades, when migrants from increasingly different origin countries moved to a narrowing set of destination countries. Classification-JEL: F22, F60, J11 Keywords: international migration, bilateral migration, (de)globalization, diversification of migrants Pages: 35 Year: 2024 Issue: Q3/2024-3 File-URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:27fcc040-9645-4c3e-ba15-1cf4659c3737/bulletin-september-2024-(de)-globalization-of-migration.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 7545 kb Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2024:i:Q3/2024-3:b:1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nađa Džubur Author-Name-First: Nađa Author-Name-Last: Džubur Author-Email: nada.dzubur@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank Author-Name: Wolfgang Pointner Author-Name-First: Wolfgang Author-Name-Last: Pointner Author-Email: wolfgang.pointner@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank Title: Macroeconomic effects of carbon prices – a cross-country perspective Abstract: In the fight against climate change, the EU has set ambitious targets for its member states to decarbonize their economies by 2050. While carbon prices are among the proposed policy instruments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the carbon taxes currently in place are nowhere near the levels that would reduce emissions sufficiently. We use a globally integrated forecast model to simulate the introduction of carbon prices that reduce emissions to the EU’s targets, assuming that carbon prices are the only effective climate policy, while in reality, a bundle of policy measures will be necessary to reach these targets. Then we assess the effects of these prices on GDP and inflation as well as the potential tax revenues generated by these prices. The results highlight the multifaceted impact of high carbon prices within the euro area: We find that we would need a sharply increasing average carbon price – from the actual price of EUR 43/t CO2 in 2024 to EUR 668/t by 2030 – to achieve the planned reduction for the euro area aggregate, although the required price changes vary across member states. The macroeconomic effects seem manageable at the euro area level, with a cumulative GDP loss of –2.2% and a cumulative increase in the consumer price index (CPI) of 6.4 percentage points from 2024 to 2030. However, for countries with a low share of renewable energy capacities and a strong reliance on fossil fuels in production, combined with low incomes, the impact on GDP and inflation may be double the size of the euro area average. For countries that have already undertaken ambitious investments in the green transition the effect on GDP is only half of the euro area average and significantly lower for consumer prices. We show that carbon pricing may be a very powerful tool to reduce emissions. However, the heterogeneity of economic impacts across member states highlights the need for coordinated support and targeted investment in renewable energy capacities, which could be partially funded by the tax revenues obtained from carbon pricing. Classification-JEL: E31, H23, Q54 Keywords: carbon taxes, energy prices, inflation, GDP Year: 2024 Issue: Q3/2024-2 File-URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:6627b3d9-afa3-4836-b38d-7a7209e51bc4/bulletin-september-2024-macroeconomic-effects-of-carbon-prices.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 6143 kb Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2024:i:Q3/2024-2:b:1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Petra Greso Author-Name-First: Petra Author-Name-Last: Greso Author-Name: Karin Klieber Author-Name-First: Karin Author-Name-Last: Klieber Author-Email: karin.klieber@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank Title: The role of inflation subcomponents: applying maximally forward-looking core inflation to euro area countries Abstract: For well-informed monetary policy decisions, central banks gather a wide range of data on the state of the economy, including several inflation measures. When pursuing a forward-looking monetary policy, policymakers ideally rely on measures that indicate where inflation is heading in the medium term, e.g. when shocks to the economy will have disappeared. To complement the set of inflation measures commonly used in the decisionmaking process, we construct maximally forward-looking core inflation, as proposed by Goulet Coulombe et al. (2024), for the euro area and its seven largest economies. Since the euro area aggregate summarizes diverse economic conditions and responses to shocks within the region, constructing maximally forward-looking core inflation for individual member states provides additional insights into the heterogeneity and commonalities across countries. Overall, our results confirm our measure’s strong performance in predicting medium-term inflation developments, which holds for all economies in the set. We identify key economic sectors that provide useful signals for future headline inflation and find a broad consistency across the seven largest euro area economies. Classification-JEL: C53, E31, E37, E52 Keywords: underlying inflation, inflation forecasting, inflation subcomponents, euro area Pages: 22 Year: 2024 Issue: Q3/2024-1 File-URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:31b5f194-2e0e-4252-955a-ccd9ea4a7078/bulletin-august-2024-role-of-inflation-subcomponents.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 6843 kb Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2024:i:Q3/2024-1:b:1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ana Abeliansky Author-Name-First: Ana Author-Name-Last: Abeliansky Author-Email: ana.abeliansky@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank Author-Name: Christian Alexander Belabed Author-Name-First: Christian Alexander Author-Name-Last: Belabed Author-Name: Julian Mayrhuber Author-Name-First: Julian Author-Name-Last: Mayrhuber Author-Email: julian.mayrhuber@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank Title: Enjoy the silence? (De)globalization and cross-border investment – a gravity approach Abstract: Amidst increasing geopolitical tensions and the growing discourse on “deglobalization,” we study how geopolitical (de)alignment correlates with one of the main drivers of globalization – cross-border investment. Extending a gravity model with data on voting behavior at the United Nations General Assembly, we find that an increase of geopolitical dealignment is associated with a decline in both foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment (PI). The decline is stronger for FDI. The relevance of geopolitical dealignment to FDI has increased after the financial crisis, suggesting that geopolitical considerations are becoming increasingly important for foreign capital allocation. While an increase in the geopolitical distance between “nonfriendly” country pairs is associated with a significant decline in cross-border investment, our results do not show such a strong relation for “friendly” country pairs, indicating that geopolitical differences between “friendly” countries do not immediately lead to a reduction of bilateral investment. Overall, our findings suggest that continued geopolitical fragmentation is likely to lead to a decline in cross-border investment. Classification-JEL: F02, F21, F36 Keywords: capital flows, cross-border investment, deglobalization, geopolitical fragmentation Year: 2024 Issue: Q2/2024-3 File-URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:838edc4d-aade-4131-ada9-457d01d48e09/bulletin-july-2024-(de)globalization-and-cross-border-investment.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 7882 kb Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2024:i:Q2/2024-3:b:1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pirmin Fessler Author-Name-First: Pirmin Author-Name-Last: Fessler Author-Email: Pirmin.Fessler@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division Author-Name: Beat Weber Author-Name-First: Beat Author-Name-Last: Weber Author-Email: beat.weber@oenb.at Author-Workplace-Name: Oesterreichische Nationalbank Title: Crypto assets in Austria: an assessment of their prevalence and the motives of their holders Abstract: In this study, we analyze data from a preliminary survey designed to evaluate the inclusion of questions regarding crypto asset holdings of households in the Austrian segment of the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). Our objective is to examine the extent of crypto asset ownership within the Austrian population and to explore the motivations behind these holdings.
Our findings reveal that a consistent, albeit small, proportion of individuals hold relatively modest quantities of crypto assets. Demographically, crypto asset holders tend to be younger than the average and predominantly male. Notably, a significant proportion of crypto asset owners (41%) in Austria initiated their investments in 2019. On average, they hold relatively low amounts of crypto assets, with the median value hovering around EUR 6,000 and the 90th percentile near EUR 6,500. Even when evaluating across various levels of crypto asset holdings, the average proportion of these assets in crypto asset owners’ overall financial portfolios remains below 30% across the full distribution of crypto assets and below 15% for owners whose holdings exceed EUR 5,000. The primary motivations cited for owning crypto assets are their speculative potential for profiting from market fluctuations (36% of stated reasons), owners’ curiosity about new technology (27%) and their desire to diversify portfolios of risky assets (12%). Classification-JEL: E44; G29 Keywords: crypto assets; financial risk; household survey Pages: 20 Year: 2024 Issue: Q2/2024-2 File-URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:05d9d080-cc45-4462-aa9b-dd6572247feb/bulletin-june-2024-crypto-assets-in-austria.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 6528 kb Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2024:i:Q2/2024-2:b:1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Katharina Allinger Author-Name-First: Katharina Author-Name-Last: Allinger Author-Email: katharina.allinger@oenb.at Author-Name: Elias Farnleitner Author-Name-First: Elias Author-Name-Last: Farnleitner Title: What you don’t know can’t help you: public perception of COVID-19 loan repayment moratoria Abstract: We analyze public perceptions of borrower relief measures, i.e. loan repayment moratoria, implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic, aiming to better understand potential frictions in the transmission of these policies. Using data from an international survey, we document substantial cross-country differences in respondents’ awareness and use of borrower relief measures, their attribution of the measures to different institutions and their reasons for not using the measures. We relate these findings to differences in the designs of moratoria across countries, concluding that respondents’ awareness and use is positively correlated with how borrower-friendly the measures were. Regarding respondents’ socioeconomic characteristics, we find that awareness is correlated with several characteristics, including ownership of financial assets and liabilities or the level of education and financial literacy. In terms of policy conclusions, we are most concerned by respondents’ low awareness of borrower relief measures in some countries and by potential implications resulting from high shares of borrowers reporting that they did not use the measure due to ineligibility. Classification-JEL: G28, G21, G51 Keywords: loan moratoria, household finance, COVID-19, policy evaluation, Central-, Eastern- and Southeastern Europe Pages: 43 Year: 2024 Issue: Q2/2024-1 File-URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:9db9e353-a902-40b2-a698-4c11951ba1aa/bulletin-june-2024-public-perception-covid-19-loan-repayment-moratoria.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Size: 7535 kb Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbbu:y:2024:i:Q2/2024-1:b:1